Don’t listen to the news, VOTE!
https://www.newsweek.com/harris-trump-polling-averages-one-week-after-biden-exit-1931251
much like texas; florida isn’t red, it’s just disinfranchised by republicans to remove democrats from voter rolls in democratic areas.
#VOTE!
Wear diapers if you have to (I’m serious. I guarantee the wait times in republican run areas is going to be atrocious long), stay in line (if you are in line they have to let you vote by law), and #VOTE!
Some places will let people request an early ballot and you can drop it off at the local board of elections. I recommend that over the diaper line if possible.
Edit- not sure how to vote absentee? Check this resource and select a state for information
CA just does universal mail in ballots. I can read about the issues and candidates at home while filling out the ballot and then walk a block to a letter drop box to submit my ballot. Then I can just track its status online. It’s great.
Honest question: With this kind of system, how do you verify who filled in the ballot? In my country we have “mail in” voting, which consists of going to a polling station in some other district than the one your from, filling in a ballot in the normal way, and then they send it for you.
Also: I’ve seen people talking about how you have to vote in person on election day, don’t the polling stations open before that? I usually vote a couple days before election day, the polling stations open like two weeks before…
Exactly! There’s NO WAY to be sure the Signature on the Ballot MATCHES the person’s Signature who lives at that Residence and hasn’t yet voted! It’s IMPOSSIBLE! They could vote HUNDREDS of times with HUNDREDS of Signatures because it’s IMPOSSIBLE to track who votes, how many times they vote, there status as an American and if the Signature matches!
this is why I vote by mail
No, you vote by mail because you live somewhere that allows it.
If you live somewhere red, you probably need to show up in person on election day, and wait around for hours hoping that you don’t get disenfranchised.
EDIT 2: This map is NOT ENTIRELY ACCURATE. Spot checking NY and PA - these states have restrictions on Absentee ballots BUT also offer less restrictive Early Mail In voting which IS NOT represented. Check your latest state laws here: https://www.nass.org/can-i-vote/absentee-early-voting
In
sevensixteen states, voters still need a reason to vote absentee. That means many voters in these states will need to vote in person at a polling place.
Edit- replaced with newer map from '22, excuse required states doubled since '20.
West coast best coast!
Look, it’s great that she’s doing well but I hope that she won’t do what Hillary did and actually believe she’s got a snowball’s chance in fucking hell to win down there and screw over herself and America by trying to win over a place that’s a pipe dream.
I truly hope she doesn’t. I feel kinda naive thinking she won’t. I know the DNC is great at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Right fuck Florida, focus on NC instead
While better shot than Florida, NC is likely a lost cause. Went to Trump in both 2016 and 2020, has elected Robinson who is a not job to lieutenant governor… Yeah Cooper won it both times too but I can’t understand how he won elections that at the same time went to Trump, Tillis, and Robinson… They have some polls pitting the well liked Cooper against Trump and Cooper still lost in those polls.
Obama was the only one in 20 years to win the state and only his first term, and only barely.
I would be ecstatic to be wrong, but probably a bad bet for relatively fewer potential electoral votes than other uses of their effort.
Far right Florida isn’t as red as people think. DeSantis barely won. He had to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of black voters to win by a sliver. Then he rigged everything to make sure he’d get reelected the second time.
Ronda won 57% to 42%. It was one of the biggest margins in the race in a long time. Florida keeps going further right. Because they’ve got an average of like 800 Boomer retirees moving in daily.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/florida-governor-2022-ron-desantis-charlie-crist-00065788
Impossible I’ve been told Joe Biden was the most popular candidate ever and Dems would 100% lose without him.
Next you’re going to tell me that not supporting Genocide would earn her even more votes.
I’m not sure that anyone claimed Biden was the most popular demograt candidate ever, it’s more that he was the safe choice, and dems have always played it safe…at least until this week where they’ve finally taken a chance on something.
Same here. When your choice is between boring, middle of the road corporatists and 100% concentrated evil, it shouldn’t be a tough choice to make.
That doesn’t mean I’m a fan of Democrats, though. In fact, I farking HATE having to vote Democrat. I’ve hated it for the last 20 years. But I hate the Judge Dredd universe the Republicans want even more. Check out Project 2025. They’re not even trying to be subtle about what they want, anymore.
Also since the Trump campaign claims not to have anything to do with P-2025,
Biden was not safe his polling looked horrible even before he turned out to be a walking skeleton.
Biden was poised to lose almost all swing states to Trump in the polls. Even deep blue states suddenly turned into battlegrounds because he wants to support Genocide so badly.
There was nothing safe about Joe Biden unless Democrats think that him winning a 1/1 elections means he has an 100% win rate indefinitely.
You’re literally arguing that Joe Biden (who is doing that he can to negotiate a cease fire) would lose to Donald Trump because voters felt Trump would care more about Palestinians than Biden?
Not everything is about Gaza you know.
Try to do some level of critical thinking, lest you become a single issue voter and easily manipulated into a future MAGA (fascist) movement.
What is Joe Biden to negotiate a ceasefire? Send bombs for israel to throw on schools? Cover for their Genocide diplomatically?
I must admit that I got scared when Biden noped out of the re-election.
I’m just glad that Kamala seems to be bringing the unification the dems need.
Get her the nomination already! And people, people, people, don’t do a Hillary and become complacent. Get out and VOTE!
Anybody that feared Biden dropping out needs to re-evaluate the way they look at politics. This has been a long time coming, and has been an inevitability since 2015 when Democrat party leadership decided they could pull a fast one during the primary. Before we even knew Biden would be that incumbent, the shape of this election had already been decided.
Now that Biden has dropped out, the Democrats have a chance. A lot of future history depends on how well Harris can turn the support for “Literally anyone else” to her advantage.
Edit: I seem to be getting a lot of downvotes for my objectively correct assessments of politics. Seems to me like y’all are either mad that I was right, or Republicans who are mad that Biden dropped out.
Anybody that feared Biden dropping out needs to re-evaluate the way they look at politics.
In what way?
I don’t know. It’s been pretty clear for a while that the traditional Democrat strategy of winning by courting centrists and staying the course has been less and less effective every election. Tapping into enthusiasm for leftist policies and energizing the base to increase turnout has seemed like the better move for a while. That’s what Obama won big on and then completely failed to deliver.
Staying the course with the “nothing will fundamentally change” candidate was always a path to losing, and after his disastrous policy on Gaza we were in a nosedive.
Not a single person voting Democrat does so because they thought Biden was a great candidate.
It appears nobody has learned anything from Hillary’s loss in 2016.
Establishment ghouls are not popular Democrats. Conservatives will vote Republican anways, appeasing to the right is worthless.
Only progressives get independents to vote blue.
Not a single person voting Democrat does so because they thought Biden was a great candidate.
Tell me you’re unaware of his achievements as president without telling me…
I am aware Joe Biden is complicit in Genocide and performed like a senile geriatric on CNN.
Tell me you don’t live in America without telling me.
Who are you to call someone out on not living in America? lol
So you don’t live in America.
I’ve never been disingenuous about where I live. MI my whole life except 5 years in VA. Those are states, in case you’re not familiar with them.
I understand it’s hard to see a whole picture when onde side of a single issue occupies 100% of your brain capacity
Some people find it a little hard to ignore Genocide. Good to see the average Democrat has no issue with it and willingly admits it.
Some people find it a little hard to ignore
Genocidemurdering babies. Good to see the average Democrat has no issue with it and willingly admits it.The same logic and reasoning as conservative single issue anti-choice voters, it’s good that America is healing its divides.
Not a single person voting Democrat does so because they thought Biden was a great candidate.
This is where you lost me. As if boomer Democrats are not a thing. But let’s keep on reading…
It appears nobody has learned anything from Hillary’s loss in 2016.
Lost me again. I don’t know why people keep forgetting about 2020.
Biden won marginally because he was marginally better than Hillary and was the Obama guy.
Bernie would have won by a landslide.
That’s a hell of a prediction for someone not even from the US.
It’s unlikely that they forgot about boomer Democrats. Many of us have parents or grandparents who qualify. I can’t think of a single person who told me how great of a candidate Biden was. I don’t remember anyone who was extremely excited by the policies he wanted to enact. Of course I can only talk about people that I met, my friends and family and community.
Were it not for Israel, I’d be telling you about how great Biden has been domestically (except the boarder). His administration has by and large been very progressive with the policies it’s enacted. Biden’s abhorrent sucking up to Israel during an active genocide is the huge dark spot on his presidency.
It is a bit dumb that “he’s too old” is what got him out.
“Opposing Israel is political suicide!” — Lemmy literally a week before the presumptive nominee told Netanyahu that the war needs to end.
Ah yes, Lemmy the monolith. Lemmy the single person with a single thought. Nevermind that there are many Lemmy instances with very different user bases.
I think overhyping of Harris is going to backfire, similar to what happened with Clinton in 2016.
This makes for a good headline but it should not stop you from voting. It was indeed a nice turnout for Harris at The Villages, but that place is not only a cesspool, it is a fucking ginormous cesspool. That group is tint compared to the overall population of that shit hole.
SOURCE: I split my time between Wyoming and Florida amd my Florida home is unfortunately just a few exits of I-4 away from that fascist lemon party.
This makes for a good headline but it should not stop you from voting.
Nothing should stop you voting. Even if Harris is predicted to have a 30 point margin, you should push for a 40 point margin. Because even if she wins, the fewer Republicans in office, the more policies the Democrats can implement.
Not to mention a stronger mandate for them and stronger rebuke of fascism to those getting ideas. Bigger margins shift the overton window.
People are enthusiastic to vote when the party listens to them.
The party had it ass-backwards. “Vote for us and maybe we’ll do what you want. But we both know we’re not gonna” generates no enthusiasm at all. To the contrary, the longer that voting yields the same disappointing results, and the more that people see that the party isn’t interested in anything other than preserving an untenable status quo, the more that this messaging results in apathy and resentment.
“Fine. We’ll do what you want.” HAS generated enthusiasm.
I think Trump leads in Florida by like 8 points according to recent polls…?
We only have 2 polls out of Florida. We really need more data to say anything.
Thats what I said.
No you literally did not.
I literally did, my entire statement is that there isn’t any data to support the claim of an eruption of Harris enthusiasm in Florida, if anything there is only limited data to the contrary. The article doesn’t even mention any polling at all.
don’t rely on polls too much especially right now
Don’t rely on data or logic? The fuq?
fuck off, mate
Do you remember 2016? Polls were saying Clinton would beat Trump by a significant margin.
If you’re approaching this logically, you’d notice the trend on data being unreliable when Trump is on the ballot.
It’s mostly attributed to inaccuracies in putting appropriate weight on likely voters vs. unlikely voters. People considered unlikely to vote by pollsters went out and voted, and they voted for Trump.
Measuring racism is also something that polling is bad at. People simply don’t like to admit to being racist. Is this related to the reason why polling on Trump is inaccurate? We don’t know because there’s no data on this. Some things polling just fails at. Can’t do much when people won’t provide you with data that may be relevant.
We do know that Trump’s primary numbers were lower than polling indicated it would be. Does that mean his numbers in the general will be lower than the polls we’re seeing right now? We don’t know.
What effect did January 6 have on people’s decisions? Some people may not want to talk about it. But the week before election they’ll probably be seeing political ads showing video about Jan. 6 and ask people straight up “do you want this to happen again?” which might people who might say Jan. 6 wasn’t a big deal to privately think otherwise just stay home on Election Day. Polling is based on past trends, so isn’t going to be good a predicting anything after unprecedented events.
After this election pollsters have a baseline for how likely people will vote for a candidate lost the previous election, tried to overthrow the government, was convicted of felonies, had an assassination attempt vs. a candidate that suddenly became prominent after the sitting President and presumptive nominee dropped out the race 3.5 months before the election. But right now there’s not a lot of data there on this particular scenario.
The data is simply too unreliable to make any prediction on anything. So… vote!
Good write up, but you’re doing the thing you said not to do (approaching this logically).
My half baked opinion on this is that people are lying to pollsters. I think it’s people of all political walks and for varied reasons, but it’s the only thing that keeps making sense.
Even exit polls are getting it wrong. Like, that can only happen if people are lying.
Exit polls getting it wrong didn’t mean people are lying. People may be refusing to answer in a way that skews one way or another.
It’s not very difficult to use logic to see why the data isn’t as useful as you seem to think it is.
Then what exactly are we deriving these claims of surge of support for Harris on, if not quantifiable recorded support for Harris?
Polls become more and more unreliable in the modern age. We have the least accurate polling in 40 years according to pew research. Pollsters report a 3% margin of error when it’s more like 6-7%. There is every reason to be skeptical of polling and not take them too seriously.
Even if Polling is less accurate than it was, and I haven’t seen any such claims by an authority on this matter least of all Pew Research, it is still a lot more accurate than your thoughts and feelings, mate.
Take a look at THIS LINK. It’s FiveThirtyEight’s composite polling for the state with individual polls listed down below, one by Redfield & Wilton Strategies sponsored by The Telegraph with Trump +8 and another by InsiderAdvantage sponsored by WTVT (Tampa, Fla.) with Trump +10.
He said don’t rely on polls “too much”, not “not at all”. Those with reading comprehension would recognize what he meant was that there is real possibility that there is a smaller gap to bridge than you might think.
You’re on some weak ego tangent that has nothing to do with anything, quoting an expired poll aggregate of Biden v Trump.
Now here is what I am saying: Rely on the polls. Use data to back your beliefs. Reject emotional responses which fuel your personal biases, be objective and make the best choices based on verifiably true information. If you have a better source than a poll that is great, if not then the poll is better than you.
If you think polling is that reliable be my guest. Noones trying to force you to be reasonable.
If the Villages move against Trump, he’s in big trouble.
A social media account called Kamala’s Wins flagged the development.
“The villages in Florida, typically dominated by MAGA extremists, have been completely taken over by Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign,” the account wrote Saturday. “This is a remarkable turnaround.”
Democratic influencer Jon Cooper said, Wow! I live only an hour’s drive from The Villages in Florida."
“Trust me when I say it’s a SUPER-RED community that’s usually a real hotbed of Trump support,” he added this weekend. “The fact that there are over 200 golf carts at this rally for [Harris] today is INCREDIBLE!”
Come on, dude. That’s a awful source for information.
I’ve seen the videos. This event is like the canary in the coal mine for those that know Florida politics. In 2020, the Villages went something like 70-30 for Trump. It is unusual for them even to have a Harris rally, much less a well attended one.
Was this rally organized by people from the Villages? Or could it be an outsider thing trying to turn these communities?
I’m not going to believe Florida flips, but man, stranger things have happened. Imagine what happens if that happens? Or somehow Texas or something. GOP would fucking lose it.
(But yes, let’s not get crazy, she’s not exactly winning every poll. I just like to wonder.)
Florida used to be a legitimate swing state just a couple elections ago. If Georgia can have a Blue election Florida most certainly can.
The neat thing is old people die eventually. Florida Republicans depend on a regular replenishment of horrible people from outside. But they are a nonrenewable resource.
Florida has been a swing many times. It made Gore lose. It’s always tight there. Texas? No way. That will always be red.
The less policies that target hispanics from voting, the purpler texas gets. My sister lives in Dallas and the support for Harris in the cities is colossal right now. They’re a democrat president and a governor away from being swing, but those are hard to fight for.
I’m hoping all the people who have moved there from CA these past couple of years can make a difference, too
I live in Texas and one thing with all the people moving from CA is that they are mostly red voters. A lot of them were willing to move here because they felt it would better represent them while the blue people stayed. At least this is the sentiment that I’ve seen expressed from the people that moved here
People forget that California is massive. It has more R voters than most red states. It just has more D voters in the aggregate.
