Why is the Macron 2.0 candidate doing better than the leftist candidate in run-off polls?
I figured having a second anti-establishment candidate would UP the odds of beating Le Pen (cuz of all the vibes-based voters that just go with whoever sounds populist). But I guess more libs are willing to vote fash than even consider a leftist?
Polling companies assume (note that I didn’t say “find in their results”) that a very large portion of centrist voters will not back Melenchon in the second round. Pollsters almost never use raw data, and add weights, but the way they do this with Melenchon is not backed by the data: in the second round of parliamentary elections, when it was a two-way-race between a candidate from La France Insoumise (LFI, Melenchon’s party), and a candidate of the Rassemblement National (RN, Le Pen’s extreme-right party), a majority voted for LFI-candidates.
Furthermore, Melenchon’s base is not with the people who vote in every electoin, but with people who have to be mobilised. You should check the polls for the first round of the previous 2 or 3 French presidential elections, and you’ll see that he rises exponentially when he starts campaigning. The fact that he’s already more or less surpassing the centrist candidates for second place in the first round, is very hopefull as this is happening much earlier than in previous elections.
Lastly, Melenchon is rethorically the strongest politician in the Global North, that is not hypeverbally. Nobody gives a speech like him, or debates like him. He will destroy anyone in a one-on-one debate if he makes it to the second round.
Lastly, Melenchon is rethorically the strongest politician in the Global North, that is not hypeverbally. Nobody gives a speech like him, or debates like him. He will destroy anyone in a one-on-one debate if he makes it to the second round.
I have to say, and maybe my French is just really shit, but so does LePenn. I really feel like this is her election to lose and the material and political conditions, esp in a pillar of the Western metropole, point towards her winning decisively. Out of all frontmen in this axis of neo-fash, she’s quite honestly the most fitting one for the moment if we’re being realistic.
Don’t get me wrong, it’d be good if Melenchon took power, but LePenn is a pretty non-shit candidate of the bourgeoise parties to go up against.
I really feel like this is her election to lose and the material and political conditions, esp in a pillar of the Western metropole, point towards her winning decisively.
I do not disagree with this at all, especially given the fact that all the press will be in favour of her and opposed to Melenchon.
On top of that, I do really wonder if there will be electoral fraud and even if there has been electoral fraud in the past: 1.2% to 1.7% too little in the first round, in 2017 and 2022, respectively, after having all the momentum, I’m not about that. Especially given that even during the American primaries there was electoral fraud to stop Bernie Sanders (admitted by the head of the DNC at the time, Donna Brazil, in her book; and defended by the DNC in court because “a private organisation isn’t expected to provide a fair election in the same way as a government, it choose how to operate”).
I also know for a fact that in Belgium, small electoral fraud took place to take away one regional parliamentary seat from PTB and give it to PS. This is beyond doubt. Has it happened more? Who knows, the party doesn’t have electoral observers in all voting stations.
Melenchon is much more radical than Bernie Sanders, and France is much more important than Belgium…
Every person alive holds views that the truly decent would find abhorrent. It’s no excuse to give up on one another, or on ourselves. The point is to change the world, comrade. Misanthropy is self-destructive and destructive to our movement.
I probably spoke too strongly. All I mean to say is that there are no perfect people. It seems self-evident to me that our communist descendents will look back at us with pity and resentment but maybe that’s a bit of internal doomerism I need to self-crit about. The struggle sessions this site has had in the past have really put me off the idea that “communists” in general are good people or that we don’t have a lot of growing up to do.
I don’t know what the place, but the Vichy ennui
Got a lot to be, but the Vichy ennui
Got a lot to do, aujourd’hui
Vichy ennui, Vichy ennui
I don’t want the place, but the Vichy ennui
Got a lot to be, aujourd’hui
Vichy ennui, but I don’t know ye
Vichy ennui, it’s the Vichy ennui
Why is the Macron 2.0 candidate doing better than the leftist candidate in run-off polls?
I figured having a second anti-establishment candidate would UP the odds of beating Le Pen (cuz of all the vibes-based voters that just go with whoever sounds populist). But I guess more libs are willing to vote fash than even consider a leftist?
Polling companies assume (note that I didn’t say “find in their results”) that a very large portion of centrist voters will not back Melenchon in the second round. Pollsters almost never use raw data, and add weights, but the way they do this with Melenchon is not backed by the data: in the second round of parliamentary elections, when it was a two-way-race between a candidate from La France Insoumise (LFI, Melenchon’s party), and a candidate of the Rassemblement National (RN, Le Pen’s extreme-right party), a majority voted for LFI-candidates.
Furthermore, Melenchon’s base is not with the people who vote in every electoin, but with people who have to be mobilised. You should check the polls for the first round of the previous 2 or 3 French presidential elections, and you’ll see that he rises exponentially when he starts campaigning. The fact that he’s already more or less surpassing the centrist candidates for second place in the first round, is very hopefull as this is happening much earlier than in previous elections.
Lastly, Melenchon is rethorically the strongest politician in the Global North, that is not hypeverbally. Nobody gives a speech like him, or debates like him. He will destroy anyone in a one-on-one debate if he makes it to the second round.
I have to say, and maybe my French is just really shit, but so does LePenn. I really feel like this is her election to lose and the material and political conditions, esp in a pillar of the Western metropole, point towards her winning decisively. Out of all frontmen in this axis of neo-fash, she’s quite honestly the most fitting one for the moment if we’re being realistic.
Don’t get me wrong, it’d be good if Melenchon took power, but LePenn is a pretty non-shit candidate of the bourgeoise parties to go up against.
what do you mean by this? how is shameless liar neonazi #34 a grain of different from her peers in europe?
Cause she’s more convincing at it
I do not disagree with this at all, especially given the fact that all the press will be in favour of her and opposed to Melenchon.
On top of that, I do really wonder if there will be electoral fraud and even if there has been electoral fraud in the past: 1.2% to 1.7% too little in the first round, in 2017 and 2022, respectively, after having all the momentum, I’m not about that. Especially given that even during the American primaries there was electoral fraud to stop Bernie Sanders (admitted by the head of the DNC at the time, Donna Brazil, in her book; and defended by the DNC in court because “a private organisation isn’t expected to provide a fair election in the same way as a government, it choose how to operate”).
I also know for a fact that in Belgium, small electoral fraud took place to take away one regional parliamentary seat from PTB and give it to PS. This is beyond doubt. Has it happened more? Who knows, the party doesn’t have electoral observers in all voting stations.
Melenchon is much more radical than Bernie Sanders, and France is much more important than Belgium…
I enjoyed this misspelling of hyperbole. Hype-Verbally almost makes more sense but its really some Greek or Latin loanword.
We live in hell
french party socialisme is split 1:2 for le pen according to polling, french people are not good people.
there you are misanthropy, i thought i’d never see you again
Any logical process that ends in misanthropy is a misfiring of neurons.
i mean, apparently a supermajority of the french population is fascist
Every person alive holds views that the truly decent would find abhorrent. It’s no excuse to give up on one another, or on ourselves. The point is to change the world, comrade. Misanthropy is self-destructive and destructive to our movement.
I don’t think that’s true. I think you made that up.
I probably spoke too strongly. All I mean to say is that there are no perfect people. It seems self-evident to me that our communist descendents will look back at us with pity and resentment but maybe that’s a bit of internal doomerism I need to self-crit about. The struggle sessions this site has had in the past have really put me off the idea that “communists” in general are good people or that we don’t have a lot of growing up to do.
Proudhon quote
Yeah, well, I’m the executioner from tomorrow. I have a political project so advanced it’s not even allowed to be posted yet.
heil heil heil heil heil
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I can’t for the life of me figure out why you post nothing but these horrendous doomer takes or why nobody ever calls you out for it.
idk how you get out of bed in the morning holding this perspective
🐟
I don’t know what the place, but the Vichy ennui
Got a lot to be, but the Vichy ennui
Got a lot to do, aujourd’hui
Vichy ennui, Vichy ennui
I don’t want the place, but the Vichy ennui
Got a lot to be, aujourd’hui
Vichy ennui, but I don’t know ye
Vichy ennui, it’s the Vichy ennui