more like thucydideez nuts, gottem
Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.
As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.
preamble
Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you’re gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they’re so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I’ve stated before, I don’t personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don’t know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.
Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran’s new tolling mechanism.
China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it’s becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from “almost implausible” to “hilariously absurd”. Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last!
BOLIVIAN UPRISING UPDATE
Heads up! Bolivia’s Senate just voted to overturn the law limiting the government’s ability to declare martial law and the use of lethal force by the security forces. It’s quite possible that Paz will declare a state of emergency tonight, which could lead to gross due process and human rights violations.
The three institutions noted that the acts of violence recorded on Saturday demonstrate the urgent need to re-establish effective channels of communication.
Article
The Catholic Church, the Ombudsman’s Office, and the Permanent Assembly for Human Rights of El Alto and Provinces expressed, through a joint statement, their concern about the lack of progress in establishing a dialogue between government authorities and the mobilized sectors, amidst a conflict that is entering its fourth week with road blockades and protests in different regions.
The three institutions regretted that a space for rapprochement between the parties has not yet been established and pointed out that the acts of violence recorded on Saturday demonstrate the urgent need to re-establish effective channels of communication.
“The violence experienced on Saturday demonstrates the urgent need to restore effective conditions for communication between the conflicting parties, with a genuine willingness to reduce tensions and seek solutions through peaceful mechanisms,” states part of the pronouncement released this Sunday.
The organizations noted that the La Paz-Oruro highway and parts of the city of El Alto experienced another day of social conflict with clashes between protesters, police and military personnel, events that resulted in injuries to people, as well as uncertainty and concern among the population not involved in the conflict.
In that context, they urged an immediate end to all violent action and demanded an “urgent, independent and transparent” investigation into the events that occurred, especially those related to injured people, a death and allegations of possible human rights violations.
They also reiterated their call to the actors involved to create spaces for “Dialogue for the common good”, avoiding actions that deepen the confrontation or put the life and integrity of the population at risk.
The institutions also indicated that they will continue to engage with the mobilized sectors and the government with the aim of contributing to the reestablishment of communication channels, the reduction of violence, and the creation of minimum conditions for understanding. “The priority at this time must be the protection of the lives, safety, and social peace of the Bolivian population,” the statement reads.
Meanwhile, a meeting was scheduled for this Sunday with the top leaders of the Unified Federation of Peasant Workers of La Paz “Túpac Katari” and representatives of the peasant women “Bartolina Sisa”; however, the meeting did not take place and as of the closing of this edition no government authority reported on the future of that approach.
NYT - Hezbollah’s chief calls for Lebanese to take to the streets against their government, drawing a rebuke from Rubio.
Longish update
-–
Full text
The leader of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, on Sunday welcomed a possible deal between Iran and the United States to end their war. But he rejected direct talks between Israel and Lebanon and called for the Lebanese people to take to the streets.
“We hope that a full agreement to cease hostilities will be reached and that this agreement will include us,” Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, said in a speech. At the same time, Mr. Qassem condemned the Lebanese government for participating in direct negotiations with Israel, brokered by the United States, to end the fighting in Lebanon. Those talks, he said, benefit only Israel.
“The people have the right to take to the streets and bring down the government in confronting the American-Israeli project,” Mr. Qassem said. He also rejected the Lebanese government’s calls for Hezbollah to disarm as part of any peace agreement. The speech drew the ire of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “The United States condemns in the strongest terms Hezbollah’s reckless call to overthrow Lebanon’s democratically elected government,” Mr. Rubio said in a statement on Sunday.
Mr. Rubio said the Lebanese government “is working to deliver recovery, reconstruction, international assistance and a stable future for its citizens with the full support of the United States,” while “Hezbollah, by contrast, is actively trying to drag Lebanon back into chaos and destruction.”
After the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, Hezbollah fired on Israel in solidarity with its patron. Since then, the conflict in Lebanon has killed more than 3,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Fighting has continued despite a U.S.-brokered cease-fire that took effect last month.
It is not yet clear whether any agreement between Iran and the United States will extend to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Several Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity on Saturday, suggested that it would. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said on Sunday that President Trump had “reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.”
How any deal between Iran and the United States would address the fundamental issues in the conflict in Lebanon — among them the disarming of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Lebanese border territory they now occupy — was unclear.
In his speech, Mr. Qassem called on the Lebanese government to abandon its negotiations with Israel and to resist American demands that Hezbollah disarm. He also said that American sanctions will not weaken Hezbollah. The United States last week announced sanctions against Lebanese officials it said were affiliated with the militant group. It said they were “obstructing the peace process” and “impeding Hezbollah’s disarmament.”
On Sunday, Mr. Rubio said the group’s “threats of violence and overthrow will not be allowed to succeed.”
More footage from Russia’s retaliatory strikes (and the aftermath) yesterday on various military decision making centers and military industrial sites, in and near Kiev:
https://en.topwar.ru/283297-prilet-boevyh-blokov-oreshnika-zasnjali-s-blizkogo-rasstojanija.html
https://southfront.press/massive-russian-strike-hits-kyiv-after-tragedy-in-luhansk/
Shenzhou-23 successfully launched and docked with the Tiangong Space station. Commander Zhu Yangzhu (朱杨柱), Payload Specialist Li Jiaying (黎家盈), and Spacecraft Pilot Zhang Zhiyuan (张志远) will replace the crew of Shenzhou-21. Taikonaut Li Jiaying is the first person from China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to travel to space.
The three Taikonauts are planned to support over one hundred experiments in areas including space life sciences, material sciences, fluid behavior in microgravity, space medicine, and new technology.Iran earlier warned already that the agreement “will be completely cancelled” due to ongoing US obstruction on key clauses.
The deal that never existed is now publicly collapsing.
The Guardian - Oil prices fall to two-week lows. Oil prices hit two-week lows on Monday on optimism that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a peace deal even though they remained at odds over key issues, including blockades on the strait of Hormuz that continue to restrict oil supply from the Middle East.
- Brent crude futures fell $4.71, or 4.55%, to $98.83 a barrel by 2234 GMT.
- US West Texas Intermediate was at $92.03 a barrel, down $4.57, or 4.73%.
Both contracts touched their lowest points since 7 May earlier in the session, Reuters is reporting.
I edited it a bit for clarity.
🇧🇴 Bolivian Vice President Edman Lara has publicly distanced himself from President Rodrigo Paz, demanding an end to the government’s repression after a protester was allegedly killed during a state operation to forcibly clear roadblocks amid nationwide protests over fuel shortages, economic conditions, and the government’s crackdown on opposition movements.
In a public statement, Lara accused the government of responding to “hunger, fear, and the exhaustion of the people” with “repression and arrest warrants,” and said police sent under the banner of a “humanitarian operation” brought “tear gas, dynamite, and mothers screaming and begging for it to stop.” Right-wing groups are calling for a “state of exception” to crack down further on the protests.
The Paz government denies responsibility for the killing, which would raise the death toll linked to the unrest to at least three. Authorities claim the government operation was needed to allow food, fuel, and medicine through, though protest groups say ambulances and humanitarian aid were already being permitted.
“They are trying to justify repression against indigenous communities and the left,” Claudia Herbas of Alianza Popular told Drop Site contributor Joseph Bouchard.
Our deal is the exact opposite [of Obama’s nuclear deal], but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet
Thanks, Donald!
[edit] We are already hearing that the US pulled back on a bunch of the stuff the supposedly already agreed to. I guess this is Trump’s response;
Does Cuba have any chance whatsoever of successfully defending itself against a potential US invasion? What does the best-case scenario look like?
South-east Asian economies struggle to counter energy shock
The funny bit here is the article as per usual only focuses on monetary policy as means to control inflation but the reality is the government can still do a lot more in a crisis situation. In fact, it is in a crisis situation that enables governments to enact more radical measures they otherwise would not be able to.
Take Malaysia’s case - right now there’s a debate in the UK about price caps in supermarkets. Malaysia has had price controls since 1970s and has now expanded to include many essential goods. Furthermore, the government has invested in supply-side interventions, through fuel and fertiliser subsidies and improving agricultural production through automation. Consumption subsidies through cash handouts have also been routinely employed. The government has also re-introduced an intiative of a previous administration of government-run grocery stores (although a bit liberalized now with PPP initiatives) and food markets. Not to say everything’s perfect, but the government can obviously do a lot.
In fact the deputy minister of Economy recently talked about how fuel subsidies are being used as a demand management mechanism.
So despite Malaysia’s high exposure through global trade flows, increasing risk premiums in maritime shipping and the obvious supply shock, the government has took a lot of measures to make it more or less manageable at the point of impact to people as seen in the CPI, with the most notable part of the basket impacted being logistics and fuel.
Medium to long term a hypothetical country should obviously focus on investments in electrification and pursuing renewable, nuclear and alternative fuel sources (biofuels namely). Again in Malaysia’s case this is done through mobilising the massive GLCs and GLICs and other state-linked corporations like the national energy company Tenaga Nasional or integrated O&G operator Petronas.
So in the UK’s case it means nationalizing every strategic enterprise and of course government spending (in production) but it remains to be seen if the UK will be able to move beyond it’s imperial hangover of 50+ years and actually start recognising present realities.
Yesterday, President Trump said a deal announcement was coming “shortly.”
US officials are “optimistic” but say the deal could still fall apart.
Good summary of the Iran/US status as of 5/24.
The Al-Jazeera live page is also a good resource:
Some Cuba related news
Feds subpoena Hasan Piker, Medea Benjamin over Cuba trips
Federal officials have served subpoenas to Marxist political influencer Hasan Piker and CodePink cofounder Susan Medea Benjamin as part of a wider investigation into whether U.S. organizations and leaders violated U.S. laws and sanctions in supporting Cuba’s communist regime, Fox News Digital has learned. Piker and Benjamin are among those caught in a federal inquiry into whether activists who traveled to Cuba in March violated U.S. sanctions laws through the financing, coordination or delivery of goods to Cuba, including potential contacts with Cuban government personnel or entities on the island. The administrative subpoenas were sent to the pair by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control
