Japan’s demographic crisis is deepening faster than expected, with the number of births this year on track to fall below even the government’s most pessimistic projections.
Archived version: https://archive.is/20251228215131/https://slguardian.org/japans-birth-rate-set-to-break-even-the-bleakest-forecasts/
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
The “economy” can go fuck itself.
What matters is the resources available per person, and naturally you would expect that to go up when there’s fewer children.
Japan before WWII
- high infant and child mortality
- shorter life expectancy
- many people didn’t live to old age
- there was population growth, but it was slower and much younger
So:
→ lots of children
→ many young adults
→ few elderlyJapan after WWII
→ baby boom
→ improved healthcare- better nutrition
- rising prosperity
- vaccinations
- medical technology Japan becomes world champion in life expectancy (over 80 years on average).
→ Japan gives women more freedom to study and work. But… the system around family, work, and care barely changes.
- women can pursue careers
- but the country still expects women to:
- run the household
- raise children
- often care for in-laws
- and employers still expect:
- extremely long working hours
- almost no flexible schedules
- full-time loyalty to the company
→ Conclusion: children are discouraged
Fertility collapses + a huge adult generation (from the baby boom) From the 1970s onward, the birth rate drops dramatically due to:
- career-focused culture
- high cost of living
- marrying later
- limited childcare
- women working + conservative family structure
→ Japan falls to about 1.2 children per woman → structural population decline.
Lessons / Conclusion: Japan shows what happens when you don’t make structural changes for a long time. Too few workers + too many elderly = shortages of labor, money, and care.
Solutions
- More children (slow solution) Birth rates usually don’t fall because people don’t want kids, but because:
- housing is too expensive
- work and family are hard to combine
- childcare isn’t well organized
- there’s too little socioeconomic security
Countries like France and the Scandinavian nations do better:
- affordable childcare
- parental leave
- flexible work
- stable housing certainty
Result: higher birth rates than Japan, Italy, Spain, and formerly Germany. If you want a “younger” society → invest structurally in good family life.
- Raising the retirement age (helps a bit)
- Robots and automation (already implemented by Japan)
- Immigration / controlled immigration (the fastest solution)
Without immigration → extreme population decline and extreme aging.
In Europe: immigration + integration makes aging far less severe.Japan can insist “we don’t want immigration,” “we are homogeneous,” “we’ll manage through discipline,” but eventually this collides with simple math. If we want to preserve our way of life, we have to take demographic reality seriously, with better childcare, higher productivity, and controlled immigration.
It’s wild how much pearl clutching goes on about birth rates, and how it isn’t common knowledge that this shit is a cyclical pattern. People get antsy about birth rates any time there’s economic contraction happening.
The Japanese are not going to die out and Japanese society is not going to collapse.
You can’t complain about a birthrate crisis when the world is full of immigrants and there is a domestic cost of living crisis unless you are a eugenicist on some level.
Throwing rocks from the glass house that is the US I know
Japan is super racist despite the polite facade. It also doesn’t help that they have a “work and drink yourself to death at the expense of having a life” culture.
America certainly does similar things, but we don’t bother polishing the turd with politeness.
It also doesn’t help that they have a “work and drink yourself to death at the expense of having a life” culture.
Americans, on average, work more hours per year than Japanese people (1765 vs 1691). Per capita alcohol consumption is also higher in the US than it is in Japan.
It was different in the 80s, but that’s now it is now.
And that’s bad. It’s bad here. This culture should not reproduce and anyone who brings a child into this should be taken out back and shot.
Doesn’t really change what I said? Just because we drink more and work more doesn’t mean what I said isn’t happening.
https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/karoshi-deep-look-japans-unforgiving-working-culture
The difference is in the US we probably do it because we get paid poorly and are stressed out due to societal and economic reasons. So we work a lot and become alcoholics because stress, advertising, whatever.
In Japan, it’s expected you work a lot and drink with the boss.
Let me make it simple.
You can’t raise a fucking family if all you’re doing is barely surviving.
Yes you can. People do it all over the world.
I’m sure those kids all come out great and very alive.
Children do not need love attention homes or parents. These luxuries make them weak
So myopic.
Neglect is very healthy for a child.make sure yours gets enough!
Assuming that kids living in poorer parts of the world are neglected. Spoken like someone who has never once faced adversity in life.
No, none, only rainbows and butterflies for me. The world is a kind and warm place and I just believe in spreading that to more people. Is that so wrong?
It shows you lack wisdom and maturity.
Cool. Should they?
Yes.
I was watching a YouTube video yesterday with Jimmy Carr and I think he summarized it perfectly.
As humans we are amazing at quantifying all the negatives around having kids (costs, time constraints, behaviour changes) but we struggle at quantifying the positives (purpose, accountability, pride, humility).
My regret is having kids later in life and not in my early 20’s. The little secret we all know is you’re never ready for kids. You either dive in or you don’t. After that? In for a penny, in for a pound.
My regret is having kids later in life and not in my early 20’s.
Reeks of boomer who doesn’t appreciate their kids.
GenX actually (48) and I have 3 kids I tell them I love them daily. 2 are on the spectrum and 1 realistically will never become an independent adult.
Your comment reeks of someone who grew up entitled and has never learned how to walk a mile in someone else’s shoes.
Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
The downvotes tell a diffeeent story, boomer.
You do realize that upvotes/downvotes are just populism in action and time and time again people have been proven to be dumb? I mean look at America.
Cool. I disagree. You want to subject your kids to climate change then go ahead.
Climate change is going to be the least of the next generation’s worries.
At least they won’t freeze to death outside in winter when likely none of them will have houses, jobs or access to healthcare (aside from the ones with inheritance of course).
Climate change alone is an absurd reason to advocate for antinatalism.
Climate change alone is an absurd reason to advocate for antinatalism.
Spoken like someone who has no idea what’s going on. Temps are already above 36°C where I live. Rains have gotten unpredictable as well and that is impacting food
I can only guess how damn hard it will be in the next 20 years.
And we are allowed to disagree. That doesn’t however make your opinion any more valid. You can’t hold hands when you make fists.
That doesn’t however make your opinion any more valid.
Present and imminent state of the world make my opinion valid.
The world has always been fucked. The question is do you bend over and take it or do you fight for positive change?
“People do it all over the world.” False it should be “Uneducated people do it all over the world” Look into geography and sociology and let me know why it is that uneducated poor people usually get more children :D
Lol uneducated does not mean dumb.
I stand by what I said.
The future lies in those “uneducated” people.
Everything about this whole thread screams privileged white people who haven’t known an ounce of struggle in their lives and all of a sudden things get a little tight that they can’t buy butter instead of margarine and holy hell the sky is falling!
This is why all my friends now are immigrants lol.
Those uneducated people usually from poorer third world countries get a lot of children cause of environmental factors:
- high infant and child mortality
- shorter life expectancy
- they need their children to work in mines
- No sex education
Educated people usually from first world countries don’t get a lot of children because:
- housing is too expensive
- the country makes work/education and family are hard to combine
- childcare isn’t well organized
- there’s too little security
Countries like France and the Scandinavian nations do better:
- affordable childcare
- parental leave
- flexible work
- stable housing certainty
Result: higher birth rates than Japan, Italy, Spain, and formerly Germany. If you want a “younger” society → invest structurally in good family life.
This is like stuff from geography I was taught in highschool, don’t you have your high school diploma or what? 😂
I’m a high school dropout and I knew this shit. Dumbass has no excuse.
Go into any rural and/or poor area in America or Canada and you’ll find poor uneducated people and they’re having kids just fine even in wealthy countries with a lot of environmental factors pushing against it.
It’s a matter of want. Own your decision don’t blame it on external factors. If you want to blame external factors for your not having kids you’re weak. My girlfriend is Kenyan. She has a 11 year old son back home she hasn’t seen in a year. She had a kid in a small rural town halfway around the world and moved to Canada to make a better life for her and her family. You know what she’s never done? Push blame outwards.
Yes, structurally we can be doing a lot better to make it easier and more attractive for people to have kids but that was and is not my point. My point is if you want kids just fucking do it. The reward far outweighs the risk and long term you’re going to be much, much better off because you’ve just grown your team.
🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 Get this guy a geography class RIGHT NOW “Why dont homeless people just buy a house” “Why dont poor people just work more”
You are sooooo limited in your thinking it’s really a shame. You don’t even know the conditions some people live in even in dense urban areas like Toronto while still having kids.
Amazing how the people in positions to have kids are screaming at the top of their lungs what would help the situation and the geritocracy just ignores them and has the fucking nerve to whine about low birth rates.
Wipe your own asses boomers, we’re done propping up this dead society
I love that people who just second before told me they DO NOT CARE about my future (bc of climate change), try to force me to have kids because I supposedly SHOULD care about their future lmao
Yeah honestly, this wolrd has done nothing but tell me it hates me and wants me to die. And I’m doing much better than most people.
This isn’t a world I would feel ok subjecting a child to.
All the MBAs and politicians throwing their hands up about birth rates because the real answer is the unthinkable “number might go down”
Systems keep chugging along with minimal maintenance if conditions stay the same, say like an increasing population.
Systems need a lot of well-thought-out adjustments to keep working if conditions change, say population changes from increasing to decreasing. It’s not that the change is inherently bad, but it means many pieces of society need to make changes to adapt. Writing to help explore the impacts and inspire adaptation is part of the process.
Another stupid article assuming that a population reduction is a bad thing.
No, no, of course, just keep increasing the human population until it crashes. Then it’ll be an actual problem.
The numbers look bad because increasing population increases the GDP, and GDP has become the archetypal example of what happens when you turn a metric into a goal.
It’s not just about GDP, if your retired population starts to outnumber your working population by a large amount, who will support all those old people? Nowadays children can’t care for their parents because they have to go to their 9-5 every day, so we rely on other people to do that job for us, and if they disappear then what? The problem isn’t the deflating population per se, it’s the inverted demographic pyramid and our work culture
The problem is made up. We’re more productive than ever and should have plenty of leisure time and plenty of safety nets for old age…but that wealth has all been siphoned off by a very few. The solution to this is tax the wealthy.
“The problem that historians, economics, geographers and other researchers have studied for decades is made up. Trust me bro”
So, two easy solutions:
Immigrant labor
Cut the toxic work culture, go to a 20-30 hour work week, and give people time to take care of their parents.
Why can’t they do that? Ask your economy priests why they can’t do that. Get back to me.
Not all economists are capitalists or assholes. Many economists do propose such things. It’s the government that doesn’t implement them. Economists are real scientists, and shunning their work in such a blanket way is uncomfortably reminiscent of the kind of anti-science “I do my own research” thinking we see on the right. Economists disagree with each other on all sorts of things, because it’s an evolving field, but that doesn’t mean it deserves to be analogized to something like religion.
economists are real scientists
Absolutely, almost as much as L Ron hubbard was!
What makes someone a scientist to you? And why don’t economists fit that? It’s such an interesting take, especially since (given we’re on Lemmy lol) I assume you’re coming from either a communist or socialist standpoint, both of which are economic theories with many economists backing them. So it’s not like all economists are playing on the team against you - although maybe you have a much more interesting take on all this than I’m imagining.
Don’t forget that immigrants are bad.
/s for f sake
/s
True, dropped that, my bad
So the problem isn’t “not enough babies” it’s “not enough babies to keep both our xenophobia and our toxic work culture”?
Oh no. Whichever you choose, I’m sure the world will mourn the other with you.
Kurzgesagt had an nice video about this, it has a huge imact on culture too. With old people not able to transmit their knowledge and crafts.
With old people not able to transmit their knowledge and crafts.
Oh no, my family’s extensive hater knowledge will be lost to time.
Article claims they expected these numbers but in 16 years. Numerically, its not that far off from the expected number of 750k births. Its 90%. I dont think thats too much of a difference to be alarmed about until you read into it more. Taxes will increase and pensions will be effected if this continues. To make matters worse this is after they already dumped billions into policies like extra free money (63$ per month🤣) until child is in high school proving that current efforts are not enough. Shame they cant address the root cause:
real reason is that they were victims of the ‘ice age generation (job shortage generation)’ and the stagnation of economies that followed, which prevented them from marrying or having children if they wanted to,” she said quoting research data.
Shame they cant address the root cause:
Thw root cause is giving women agency. Careers education etc and mostly free of religious indoctrination (eg Quiverful etc)
If women have a choice, the majority choose 0,1 or 2. For every woman that chooses 0, you need another woman choosing 5 just to tread water. Hungary and Poland are throwing a fortnue at it and gerting no where, as is Russia. Australia, Sweden etc all have less then replacement, the only reason Australia keeps growing it’s population is immigration. You either do that, or you take away womens right to choose, or your population goes backwards. (Or aim for some sort of stasis where deaths = births + immigration)
You can’t grow the population forever, so you have to address the issuie at some stage anyway.
I don’t see the problem. What’s the problem here? How is this bleak, except for the linegoup?
More babies is just more people later. I don’t know that we need fewer, but we certainly don’t need more.
Old people unable to find caregivers and dying alone, often many years younger than they would with basic care. In isolation, I do find countrywide systemic elder neglect to be a pretty big negative. I am old enough my future need for care is starting to feel pretty real, and I really appreciate having enough nieces and nephews to have decent odds of support.
In Japan’s specific case, there are large numbers of people in nearby countries that would jump at the chance to immigrate and work in elder care, but most Japanese are so racist they would rather die alone and early. So, I guess leave them to it.
large numbers of people in nearby
Cool
would rather
Okay. So why is pressuring already overworked put upon young people to do even more even on the table when letting the racist shit sticks die in their own piss respects everyone’s autonomy?
I said the same thing but used the word race and the whole forum bashed me for being a “Nazi.” I swear sometimes I think the bots have already taken over Lemmy.
Japan does not get enough hate for being a racist anti-immigrant conservative hell hole.
This is the average amount of monthly hours (male/female)worked since 2013, i do not see an honest effort to help the population growth.
Source: https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/
Which line’s male and which line’s female?
The blue line is male and the blue line is female.
40 hours a week is 160 hours in a month, which the male average seems to dip below regularly and the female average is always below. That doesn’t seem worse than my situation in the US.
- This is the official working time, which does not include the obligatory overtime where bosses require their employees to accompany them going drinking and stuff
- They want japanese babies, and no immigrants - so their working time MUST get below other western countries (which keep their population at a stable level by immigration) or it will never happen.
Edit: 3) I forgot to mention that stuff like household chores, shopping and caring for the eldery is a womens domain, with embarrassingly low engagement by men. Everyone knows how much work that is - i postulate that the women work on average MORE than the men.
I completely agree. This is all about people not enjoying life because they work too much. Regulate the problem as an externality and this problem would go away. But government leaders in Japan would never have the guts to radically regulate the problem, such as requiring double the pay for overtime after 28 hours of work per person in a week (and this would need to be per person, not per job, to avoid people then just doubling up on jobs to get more hours; the externality could only be brought under control by having it apply to everyone with no way to circumvent it).
There are three solutions to adjusting the so-called ‘replacement rate:’
- Reduce death rate (ie improve health outcomes for elderly to extend lifespan).
- Make more babies.
- Allow immigration.
Options 1 and 2 haven’t worked too well, and option 3 can cause a lot of political issues.
Not sure there’s a good way to avert the end-game.
Edit: actually there are two other solutions: cloning, and senecide (killing the elderly). It’s dystopian SciFi and totally unethical, but they’re there.
I’d argue that Japan has historically done pretty well at the first. I don’t find the healthcare system here perfect, but I have many elderly in-laws who get great care. There’s probably going to be a decline in quality and/or availability as the issues persist, though.
3 leads to more than just “political issues”, you are replacing your country’s people and culture with others that will in all likelihood have far higher birth rates
Not “replacing” unless you bring in like 50k+ immigrants per year and give them disproportionate power over everything. Immigrants bring their culture, but they’re always the ones who have to adapt.
Geriatocracy is a good word. Putting it in my active vocaulary.
The word is “gerentocracy”
the word is gerontocracy
I wish I could spell 🙈
Anyone obsessed with birthrates is an asshole until proven otherwise.
We went straight from ‘there’s too many people!’ to ‘there’s not enough people!’ on a dime. Even rates drastically below replacement aren’t Children Of Men. There’s just fewer kids and more old farts. So… Florida?
Oh god, maybe we should be worried.
You clearly don’t understand the situation. 125 million down to … 60 million, less, in half a century, maybe less… How to manage that is a serious question. Infrastructure is a huge question.
Less power, less traffic, less consumption… what part of infrastructure isn’t suddenly overengineered? For a value of “suddenly” that means in fifty years.
And as others note, this isn’t because the Japanese are suddenly averse to fucking. They’re overworked to the point of self-parody. This trend is eminently reversible, if the people addicted to the wiggly line can look further into the future than next quarter.
i think south korea has a worst rate than japan, they are declining faster.
This new generation of child-free people better be damn well aware that when they get old they are absolutely fucked. The state isn’t going to be there for them and IF they have a SO great but even then shit happens.
The future is going to be bleak.
The state isn’t going to be there for them
Good thing I got a vasectomy so my unborn children will never have to suffer such neglect.
