Florida’s voter registration deadline is on the earlier side in a few days on Monday. Make sure to register to vote! https://vote.gov/register
I know I’m one “not team fascist” vote in Florida that wasn’t there for the last election. So there’s that.
“Nearing toss-up status” aka Trump is still winning above the margin for error. Most likely if Harris wins FL it would be after winning PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, AZ, and thus easily the election.
The leads in some of the latest Florida polls are now within margin of error of those polls
I will not believe it until it happens. Just like Texas. But if she does win, I am willing to bet it comes along with additional house seats.
in 2020 republicans went hard after the cuban vote. wonder how that’a going this time.
I live in Miami and i hate to report that it’s going swimmingly well for the GOP. There’s a culture down here that anything even looking like it might be confused with a leftist policy is immediately labeled COMMUNIST and hated with incessant fervor. No one dares be seen as a Castro-fellating leftist scumbag so they’re constantly virtue signaling how republican they are. Same with anything the Catholic church doesn’t like as there are lots of Catholics here and they vote as they’re told. The result is you’re as likely to see a Trump sign in a million dollar yard as a broke-ass apartment complex. Spanish-language talk radio here is so far to the right it wants to harvest the poor for their organs and bone marrow.
If Florida goes for Harris I will be legitimately amazed. Thrilled, no doubt, but amazed.
I mean Florida happened in 2012. Texas I think was 1976. So I’m with you, just I’m feeling FL is a little more reasonable.
Ohio was 2012 too. It feels like such a different world.
How weird would it be for the Dems to lose Michigan and win Florida and Texas?
The poll in the article was in the field before the storm(s) but no Florida poll will be reliable for the foreseeable future. Half of the Tampa-St. Pete region is going to be evacuating this week should the Hurricane Milton develop according to forecasts. Parts of the state are dealing with Helene.
Voting isn’t even going to be predictable, much less polling. Committed voters will do anything to vote but a lot of people are detached from politics and are going to be busy with home repairs, insurance companies, or just not coming back.
Maybe hurricane Martin will remove numerous Republicans from the voter rolls. They are stupid enough to ignore storm warnings.
Republicans do tend to inhabit the northern sections of Florida more than the south.
We can totally blame this on old pudding fingers
Holy fuck. If she takes Florida and Texas?
God damn. It will be a mandate from the people lmao.
#VOTE!
Both abortion and legal weed are on the ballot in FL, so expect a larger than normal turnout.
I want to watch DeSantis eat a giant shit sandwich.
If Texas turns blue, Republicans will blame immigrants instead of their unpopular policies that got it there.
If Texas turns blue, the 2020 post-election period is going to look like rainbows compared to what the GOP will do this year.
I mean Pence had to turn them in to be radified last time, does Harris not do it now because some weird rule? If it’s not her I assume it would be Johnson and he might try to deny them.
Congress (back when it was functional- you know, when the Dems were in control) passed a law codifying the VP’s role in elections is only to certify the results. So in theory she wouldn’t be able to question it the way Pence could have (though as I understand it, even the idea that Pence could have delayed cert was on shaky legal ground, but at least now that ground has been completely knocked out).
Ethically, you’d expect that since the VP is running for President that she’d step aside of the process and let the President Pro-Tem handle it (unlike Georgia’s current governor, who was secretary of state and refused to recuse himself from his own election) though I don’t think there is any legal requirement for her to do so.
Why? Al Gore and Richard Nixon both certified their losses, while Bush-41 certified his victory, and every year that the incumbent ticket wins is a year that the VP certifies their victory as VP. What’s so different now? Frankly, nothing.
The reason she won’t is because of aggressive redistricting and roll purging by de santis. The polls are of likely voters. The thing about roll purges is it means people who thought they were registered to vote won’t be able to.
In fact most states in which trump’s minions have established control over the election apparatus will have a strong red shift away from the polls.
Pretty big deal if it holds up another week or two.
Note however, that NS does not have them as being this close:
*Checking the other results in FL, this is a bit of a fever dream. Only engage with it if you haven’t had some time for self-care this morning.
Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point
A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.
Here is FL 2020:
Dem’s face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.
R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.
That’s assuming the polling error goes the same way. That’s not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling
Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance
You should base it on the data we have. The data we have says the polling bias for FL leans +3-4 for Republicans.
You dont get to just “wish” it were some other way and base expectations around that.
Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%
Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it
My point is that you cannot be certain about it
Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.
If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.
That’s not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can’t be sure?
Here are the actual poll results which the article helpfully does not link to.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the voter preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask– the number without leaners– it was Trump 50%, Harris 47%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 774 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 25-27, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5.
I think articles like this based on a single poll which appears to be an outlier are uninformative, but I guess they get clicks.
It’s not that much of an outlier. Nate Silver is tracking Trump’s lead in Florida across numerous polls at +3%. With leaners, this poll found +2%. Off the average by one point with a 3.5% margin of error. Which is to say, well in line with other results.
The article is sensationalistic and likely wrong in portraying that as a toss-up or close to tied. Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%. A result that suggests he has a similar lead suggests that he’ll win by about as much as he did in 2020.
Silver has seven recent polls that inform the Florida average. Not a single one shows Harris ahead. Trump has also outperformed his polling in both of the last two contests, so his actual lead in Florida may be greater than the polling average suggests, but there is nothing to suggest Harris is ahead or likely to pull ahead.
Trump is likely to win Florida. The race still hinges primarily on Pennsylvania. Harris is not gaining ground. The race is locked in essentially a dead heat, with a tiny edge for Harris if you believe the polls and a tiny edge for Trump if you believe he’ll again outperform the polls.
I detest these articles and the conspiratorial side of me thinks they’re planted by the right to encourage complacency among Democratic voters. This election is as close as they come and requires everyone to show up and vote.
Nate Silver
He predicted a Hillary win in 2016. Go with the guy who gets it right, professor Allan Lichtman. He actually correctly predicted a Gore win in 2000 but the vote count was stopped by the Brooks Brothers riot and subsequently awarded to Bush by the right wing Extreme Court.
I’m not defending modern Nate Silver as a person — he seems to have become a bit of a gambling addict — but in 2016, 538’s model had Trump’s chances at like 33% and the competing models had his chances at 1-2%. It wasn’t a bad model so much as a “when polls are off, they tend to be off in the same direction” situation. The 2016 538 model at least took that into account.
Yeah, people are delusional if they think Florida, which overwhelmingly voted for DeSantis, has any chance of going to Harris.
I think she’s got a fair chance of winning FLA, but if she does, it means she’s already won most of the swing states, so there’s not much point in investing the massive amount of cash it would take to win. But, like Iowa and Alaska, the fact that it’s this close is a very encouraging sign.
Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She’s not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.
She’s improved her postilion in FL. She’s not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now “break even”.
Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020
? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%
Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
You can go check the exact sources. I think Kamala is down in FL -2, -3? Depends on your source and poll aggregator. Biden was up ~+3 ~+4. Final result was -4? So call it a 6-7 point structural bias. Doesn’t diminish my point.
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
Yeah thats just self delusion. You clearly have a specific confirmation bias your working to attend to. You shouldn’t delude yourself and others because reality is difficult and shitty. We only hurt yourself when we live in fantasy.
Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would’ve thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It’s not limited to 2012 either
Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn’t fully knowable until only after the election happens
Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.
I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren’t better off living in a state of self delusion.
