• TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She’s not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.

    She’s improved her postilion in FL. She’s not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now “break even”.

    • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
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      1 month ago

      Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020

      ? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%


      Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes


      Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either

      • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        You can go check the exact sources. I think Kamala is down in FL -2, -3? Depends on your source and poll aggregator. Biden was up ~+3 ~+4. Final result was -4? So call it a 6-7 point structural bias. Doesn’t diminish my point.

        Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either

        Yeah thats just self delusion. You clearly have a specific confirmation bias your working to attend to. You shouldn’t delude yourself and others because reality is difficult and shitty. We only hurt yourself when we live in fantasy.

        • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
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          1 month ago

          Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would’ve thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It’s not limited to 2012 either

          Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn’t fully knowable until only after the election happens

          • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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            1 month ago

            Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.

            I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren’t better off living in a state of self delusion.