• orlando [they/them]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    3
    ·
    48 minutes ago

    i thought the strategy was to not use nuclear warheads so that they could use ballistics on isreal or wherever without the possibility of it being interpreted as a nuclear weapon?

  • SerialExperimentsGay [she/her, she/her]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    21
    ·
    8 hours ago

    How would they do that. Iran’s nuclear program has been under attack for two decades, they’ve suffered airstrikes, cybersabotage, assassination of their scientists by Israeli hitmen, they’ve submitted to an extensive sanctions regime controlling all of their reactors for years upon years without the IAEA finding any misconduct from them, and then when the US terror bombings started they have repeatedly targeted nuclear plants and other infrastructure that could in theory be useful for a nuclear program because that’s the entire spurious pretext for this war, which is even mentioned in that post itself. How would anybody who has endured all that go from having a provenly 100% civilian nuclear program to testing a nuke within months during a time of war while their entire energy infrastructure is soaking up the US cruise missile supply? It’s not possible.

    Also check the source, it’s literally one single Iranian MP. Nobody in the actual government, nobody in the military, no nuclear scientist or whatever, just one rando sitting in parliament.

  • somename [she/her]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    33
    ·
    10 hours ago

    Iran getting a nuclear weapon would be one of the best things to happen in decades. Iran has been pushing back the imperialist machine in every way, and getting a nuke would solidify their position in a way nothing else can.

    • Dirt_Possum [she/her, undecided]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      29
      ·
      9 hours ago

      I tend to agree, but it is a legitimate concern for Iran and the rest of the world that “Israel” might, correctly or incorrectly, consider a nuclear-armed Iran to be enough of an existential threat to preemptively nuke them before Iran is even able to retaliate. I hope Iran does develop nukes and I hope it becomes the undisputed regional power and uses that power to, among other things, end the genocide of Palestinians. But there are many intermediate stages where things could go horribly wrong.

      • Hermes [none/use name]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        5
        ·
        4 hours ago

        nuke them before Iran is even able to retaliate.

        If Iran goes public with nuclear arms it will be after they have second strike capability. They have already demonstrated the capability of their missile program with their ability to fire large payload missiles through air defenses and the ability to withstand sustained airstrikes on their missile cities. It is no stretch to say that a nuclear Iran would be able to almost guarantee nuclear retaliation.

  • I might offer a counter opinion I heard from Struggle 4 on twitch the other day. He pointed out two reasons why he thinks they won’t. First was that they don’t need to because it doesn’t really net them more control or power. And second was the optics of the US admin then saying they were justified on the international stage.

    I think it’s a pretty strong argument, but I could see it going either way. If it were me, I’d make the nuke.

      • I believe that would be categorically incorrect. Unless the new Ayatollah has changed the official stance in secret, it would be akin to the Pope issuing an order and the Vatican doing the exact opposite. The government of Iran is a theocratic republic, and the Atatollah issued a fatwa against nukes as a matter of religious doctrine. So I’m not sure that’s going to change even under these circumstances.

  • hotcouchguy [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    19
    ·
    9 hours ago

    If they want nukes, it makes sense to just build them, and maintain secrecy until they have a dozen or so in a usable state. Which makes me think this is about something else: could be deterring Saudis from getting nukes, or removing IAEA spies, or something else going on.

  • Monk3brain3 [any, he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    15
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    10 hours ago

    Absolutely essential for Iran to get nukes asap if they don’t want to have the US and Israeli Zionazi coalition trying to destroy them forever. I’ve heard some braindead commentary that Iran might not want a nuke because Turkey and Saudi will get one but in which universe are either as big a threat to any human in their near vicinity as Israel is for all non Jews in the middle east. Also if Turkey or Saudi did get a nuke then what? Is Iran planning a war with them? Honestly it would be great because Saudi would also back the fuck off as they should goddam scumbags.

    • miz [any, any]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      6 hours ago

      have the US and Israeli Zionazi coalition trying to destroy them forever

      but they will already try to do this

      • Monk3brain3 [any, he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        3 hours ago

        I don’t think that they would if Iran had nuclear weapons. They’d absolutely want to though and are indirectly attacking Russia through proxies. One has to think that Russia failed to establish deterrence. North korea on the other hand did so it’s possible.

    • Dirt_Possum [she/her, undecided]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      ·
      9 hours ago

      I think a bigger concern than Turkey and Saudi is the frothing rabid dog that may or may not abide its master in the eventuality that it thinks someone may be able to finally come and put it down.

    • MarxMadness [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      21
      ·
      10 hours ago

      They want an end to the war with some confidence that the U.S. won’t immediately attack again. The U.S. is totally untrustworthy, so nukes are one of the most realistic answers for them.

    • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      20
      ·
      10 hours ago

      for real once they have nukes they can never shoot another missile at the entity unless they really mean it

      and no more missiles falling on tel aviv would be a world-historic tragedy

      • MarxMadness [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        15
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        10 hours ago

        Why? There are a number of examples of conflicts between nuclear states that haven’t evolved into a nuclear exchange.

        It’s an incredibly dangerous game, but it matches the stakes.

        • TommyCatkins [none/use any]@hexbear.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          8
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          9 hours ago

          They are in a conflict NOW, and that makes all the difference. Why would you announce a nuclear device during an active conflict unless you mean to use it? Everyone would interpret the next missile as a nuclear warhead and retaliate accordingly

          • MarxMadness [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            10
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            9 hours ago

            If the idea is to deter aggression – not to actually use them on a target – you’d want your enemy to know what you have. It’s like brandishing a gun to make someone back off. The threat doesn’t work if it’s hidden.

            This is even a joke in Dr. Stragelove: “they built a doomsday machine but didn’t tell anyone about it??”