• SerialExperimentsGay [she/her, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
          29·
          7 days ago

          The only way out of this is if Iran gets him so mad that he gets a heart attack or if his generals or somebody in a three letter agency get so fed up they coup him. Given the bloodletting and replacement with loyal stooges at the start of his term, the latter seems a lot less likely.

          • the rizzler@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
            5·
            7 days ago

            if that’s gonna happen, it’s likely he just gets impeached. i mean, if the feds hate him that much, so will congress. the gop is gonna take massive losses in the midterm if he can’t get gas prices consistently low. i doubt the dems are gonna try to impeach their favorite scapegoat if they hold both chambers but maybe if the treats get too expensive. also if iran hits him with the heart attack gun it has to be worth it, i.e. vance has to be willing to pull back AFTER trump dies in suspicious circumstances. and if vance is willing to pull back after that, congress probably would be before it gets to that. same goes if the feds hit him but i guess at least then they have access to jd too.

      • ZWQbpkzl [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
        34·
        7 days ago

        Honestly, I think they would try to pretend its The Lusitania or The Maine and use it to justify a ground invasion.

        They can not fathom such a hit to their ego. It just won’t register as anything other than wanting vengeance and accusing anything less as treachery.

          • ZWQbpkzl [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
            5·
            7 days ago

            With +2K sailors downed the seal on american loses would be fully cracked. Heggseth would eagerly start feeding soldiers into a woodchipper to avenge those already killed.

            • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
              6·
              7 days ago

              For sure, but i’m not talking about willingness to take losses, but they simply wouldn’t be able to assembly serious ground invasion force.

        • senseamidmadness@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
          7·
          7 days ago

          The entirety of the US military simply does not have the personnel to conduct a ground invasion of Iran and have any chance at success. Casualties are guaranteed to be high. And it would be political suicide at home even more than this has already been

            • senseamidmadness@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
              2·
              6 days ago

              I don’t think they’d behave that irrationally because Trump doesn’t want to be seen as responsible for losing, and neither do any of his other fascist cronies.

              You can look at the pattern of how this whole conflict has gone and see obvious signs that they refuse to take large risks – US Navy ships always staying out of the known range of Iranian missiles even to the point that it compromised the “blockade”. Almost everything has been missile attacks for as little risk as possible. Aircraft and pilots are acceptable because they can attribute them all to “accidents”, not a combat loss.

              I admit they could escalate but it seems very unlikely to me because of that.