- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/15676201
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
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This is happening because of inflation and it’s due to corporations across the globe profiteering off COVID supply chain issues, lack of competition, and general corporate capture. It’s not Biden’s fault the right has dismantled the regulatory state for the last 50 years so the government is too weak and corrupt to reign in corporations.
Biden does represent part of the problem because he is, by any real measure, a slightly less extreme Republican. Still a great defender of corporations, most of the legislation he helped champion during his term has literally just been no-strings corporate handouts dressed up with nice sounding names.
Whether you support Biden or not, it’s important to be honest about what he is and the part he’s played in this not just during his presidency, but over his career as a senator.
If you think Biden is only “slightly less extreme”, you really need to take another look at the Republican party, given its leader is casually suggesting sending out secret police to round up undocumented immigrants into camps.
Even restricting the view to economic policy, the gap between the average Republican and Democrat in office has been growing much much larger compared to the old 90s consensus. Both parties have grown critical of free trade, with Republicans going much further and wanting to throw huge tariffs on any country that feels icky (and somehow thinking that jacking up prices on all imported goods will improve inflation*). Republicans have also grown extremely fond of attacking any corporation they perceive as being too woke or socially aware, even going so far as to invoke the powers of supposedly-small government to ban certain diversity practices.
Both parties have become relatively protectionist, but Republicans tend to be against any form of actual domestic investment. On housing, pretty much all supply-side solutions (which you’d think would come from the supposedly market-loving Republicans!) are instead coming from the Democrats, with the Republicans instead reducing essentially everything to culture wars.
Again, look at the Republican party as it actually is today, because they largely do not have any substantial policy beyond stoking white conservative rage. I’m not saying mainstream Democrats are revolutionary champions of the working poor, but there simply is no competition compared to the Republicans of today.
I think they meant on the political spectrum Biden is still right of center. Something that is entirely true and ppl find problematic. Just because Biden doesn’t cry about bullshit like wokism and whine about the border doesn’t mean the guy isn’t politically conservative
We’re not in a recession but we are in what economists refer to as an “Unchecked Corporate Price-Gougiganza”
Unchecked Corporate Price-Gougiganza
AKA late-stage capitalism.
Recession, as we define it, is only really meaningful to those of at least moderate wealth. That line used to be low enough that it included the majority of the population. Extreme wealth inequality has changed that. The majority are now below that line. Recession has become a concern for the rich. The rest of us suffer from wage stagnation and inflation to support ever increasing corporate profits, but that problem doesn’t have a simple name and is rarely part of the economic debate. “The Economy” is doing fine, but most of us who have to participate in it are not.
It’s not the people that are out of touch…
It’s economists and politicians being out of touch.
Here’s my explanation from yesterday, I’m not sure why OP “cross posted” something to the same sub it was on yesterday:
The issue is voters talk about how regular people are doing, while politicians talk about “the economy” which is rich people and business…
For them, shits going great. Because their record profits are coming from regular Americans being priced gouged.
Also, I stopped reading when the article clearly couldn’t understand inflation compliants.
The poll underscored people’s complicated emotions around inflation. The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.
In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation’s 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.
The inflation rate is slowly going down. But it’s a rate, prices are still up and continuing to go up. That 9.1% from 2022 is still baked into the 3% increase we’re experiencing.
Like. Say it was 100, 9% increase makes it 109. 3% of 109 is more than 3% of 100…
It’s compounded, but it’s not complicated and anyone writing about economics should understand that and explain it to their readers when talking about inflation rates.
So the inflation rate should go down but it’s not like that means lower prices, it just means 1% increase now is more than a 1% increase in the past.
And that’s not even getting into the harsh truth about inflation and capitalism:
A lack of inflation means people save money. That takes money out of circulation. A lot of our problems are because the wealthy do that with huge sums.
If enough money gets taken out of circulation then it leads to a recession as there’s less money floating around and changing hands.
We need inflation to prop up this bullshit economic system the wealthy are obsessed with.
The issue is voters talk about how regular people are doing, while politicians talk about “the economy” which is rich people and business…
This, 100%.
Ask some person on the street how their stock portfolio is looking, and they’ll probably be like “The F are you talking about???”
Ask the same person about the cost of groceries, and they’ll have a rant locked and loaded about why a 12 pack of soda costs $10 now.
When people respond to these surveys, they are taking their experiences with them, and most of us are seeing expensive gas, expensive groceries, expensive housing, and jobs that don’t pay enough to live. People couldn’t afford to live on $8 an hour a decade ago, and now everything costs more.
This has downstream effects in that it makes it harder to switch jobs because you cant wait two weeks for your new job to kick in - much less afford to take off work to go to an interview. You can’t move to a city with more opportunities because cities are more expensive and you can’t even afford to save up enough to make the move because you’re paycheck to paycheck. Jobs paying “market rate” for wages which is dragged down because the system keeps people desperate enough to work for cheap.
These are people who have had to live with the boot of the economy on their necks for a long time. And while politicians can talk about all the great jobs out there and how amazing the economy is, for real people that boot is just stepping down harder. It’s no wonder they blame leadership when this is their experience with this economy.
Even quarterly CEO updates mention coming headwinds while simultaneously saying that profits were record highs (but not high enough). The gaslighting from corporate America is a bunch of bullshit doublespeak to both please investors with infinite and keep costs (wages) low with infinite reduction.
“The economy” means different things to labor than it does to owners.
Yeah, the stock market is doing great. Companies are making money hand over fist. Meanwhile, I got a 1% raise this year, but my cost of living expenses have ballooned, especially for things I have no control over.
My mortgage escrow payment just went up $300 a month, but I consider myself fortunate since my brother’s went up $900. My health insurance premiums are up. My grocery bill is eye popping. I’ve drastically cut back on eating out because it costs me an arm and a leg to get decent fast food. My kids are still a ways out from college, but I looked at tuition trends recently and nearly had a heart attack.
And I want to be clear, I am 100% voting for Biden because I have more than 2 braincells to rub together and understand that this isn’t his fault and a Trump administration would be disastrous. But the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” will always ring true. And while technically the “economy” is great for rich people, it fucking sucks for the rest of us right now.
I mostly support Biden, but this isn’t really a surprise. For what seems like years now, it’s felt like all the major news outlets have been running stories about a recession being right around the corner. There will be little bright spots here and there, but otherwise it’s been a constant drumbeat perpetually expecting a recession, PLUS you’ve got layoffs and sky-high prices for rents/houses/consumer goods. The “economy” may be doing good, but it still sucks for the majority of commoners who have to actually live in this country.
The “economy” may be doing good, but it still sucks for the majority of commoners who have to actually live in this country.
Yeah, the problem is leaders of both parties (and the economists they listen to) just don’t care about normal Americans.
They care about the wealthy and corporations, and those groups are doing great.
The politicians/economists are just so out of touch, they don’t understand why anyone cares about anything else.
Republicans have always done it, it’s just frustrating that Dems do it now too. There’s no valid third option looking out for normal Americans.
That means turnout will be low, and that’s when Republicans manage to win.
It’s time to admit that the people running the DNC just don’t know what the fuck they’re doing, and they shouldn’t be running a hotdog stand, let alone the only thing standing between America and outright fascism.
Best bet is to try and support politicians based on the money they take during their campaign. It’s the only real way to distinguish Democrats masquerading as “left leaning” with nice soeeches and rhetoric and ones who actually are.
I always plug opensecrets.org for that since it makes it pretty easy to just go to the campaign finance section, search a politician and see exactly where the majority of their funding comes from. Those are the groups they’re going to try and please. It’s why people like Sanders and AOC are free to actually speak the truth for the most oart, they’re only behokden to the normal people who fund their campaigns with small donations.
Opensecrets also gives a lot of good information that breaks down how to effectively research campaign finance.
Money always tells the truth.
People believe those things because the economy is bad and we use worthless measurements (like, say, GDP) to plaster over that fact. If children are only ever taught one way to look at something they’ll force it to conform with the obvious reality once it’s undeniable.
Yep, who cares if the stock market is going up, people look at their stagnant pay and ever increasing prices for rent, groceries and insurance. Sure, that doesn’t technically mean a recession, but it still sucks.
And democrats running on ‘bidenomics’ just seems ridiculously out of touch in that context (even if there’s objectively good stuff in the IRA and similar bills, it’s just not enough for people to notice).
From Words That Work, by a prominent conservative political messaging consultant:
Americans know what they believe, even if they don’t know or can’t explain why they believe it or give you any evidence to prove it.
But if your beliefs lack justification, then you’re dumb.
Americans are dumb.
There. I said it.
The majority are not rich.
dup. dup. dup. seriously I hate articles like this. Obviously anyone who thinks we are currently in a recession does not understand the word recession. All the same the economy for regular people has not been good in forever and especially since 2k but that is not going to change unless we get a hellubalot more sustainable. My satan companies still modify models purely to make old attachments incompatible still.
I understand how “the economy” is a term that is open to interpretation and its current health can be debated. But the last two points of the original three are pretty straightforward and yet a challenge for many people.
Presidents don’t have dials under their desks that control price inflation
Inflation is bad. Recession is bad. I think they just don’t like economics.
