No seriously where are they?
Weren’t they jailed?
yes
Either that or they got activist burnout.
What should they be celebrating? Did oil stop?
Yeah now it’s all over the ocean and polluting ecosystems throughout SWANA
Celebrate what exactly?
the world’s oil systems going up in flames
The emissions caused by all those systems going up in flames, to say nothing of the munitions used to cause that, are pretty bad though.
One time versus ongoing. It’s a net reduction
uncontrolled burns aren’t run through catalytic converters or whatever the powerplant-level remediation is called. this is worse than burning it properly unless the total amount is way less, enough to cover all the extra emissions from increased military activity. the upshot is if it causes a long-term change in energy generation and iran’s reparations depend on the oil flowing again eventually.
pixel counting, coal’s 312 minus oil and gas (452+69) = -209 neat, so what does this look like in the context of the trends going back 20 or 50 years?
what about methane?
is this accounting for the difference i brought up before in uncontrolled emissions?
and we won’t see the rebound until we see it (hopefully there simply isn’t one)
Total amount is way less. This is how the oil world dies, in flames. It’s the only way forward, we have to rip the band aid off. There is no peaceful transition away from the oil reich.
You have a lot of assumptions baked into this. Why are you certain that this disruption results in a permanent decrease in oil consumption?
Upcoming oil shocks will destroy the world economy and total consumption will collapse. We might have another world war where even more energy infrastructure is wiped out. China (the winners of the world war) will help rebuild the world from the ashes with clean energy. The table is set.
ard, we have to rip the band aid off.
this analogy is actually bad because that causes more pain to patients, the longer duration of doing it slowly is just inconvenient for nurses.
There is no peaceful transition away from the oil reich.
of course not, but it’s not just an environmental free roll to blow up the infrastructure
it’s a widely used figure of speech, you don’t need to be so pedantic.
Blowing up pipelines is necessary but not sufficient. It’s still necessary.
Production increases in other parts of the world make up for a large part of the opec losses.
That’s like 2 days of oil production.
It’s actually about 10, a decrease of ~3% (assuming ~11,000 MtCO2 per year annually)
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/co2-emissions
Each year the average increase of CO2 is around ~60 MtCO2, so Iran/Ansarallah have destroyed oil demand and production so much it has set us back by roughly 5 years worth of growth.
And this is with the fake prices from draining the strategic reserve, we haven’t even hit the material energy crunch yet.
No they do not, world oil supply has plummeted. Reserves have been drained. Demand has been destroyed.
US oil production is up 3% from this time last year, and they are the biggest petroleum producer on earth. Not even enough to make up a fifth of the loss of just the pipeline that Ansarallah/Iraqi militants just took offline for months - let alone the strait closures.
Iran and Ansarallah are enacting an ecological miracle
JSO announced that they were ending operating in March 2025.
My theory about why Hexbear hated JSO is that it’s like looking into a mirror. JSO were publicly perceived as annoying and cringe, but let’s be honest the public would perceive hexbear posters in the same way. (You can include me as being considered annoying and cringe, if you like.) The public criticized JSO for having ambiguous gender presentation and for being opposed to cars. These are both traits of the average Hexbear poster. (I’m not agreeing with the public opinion. I support ambiguous gender presentations.)
There was a moral panic about throwing soup on paintings, as if there was any real intended harm to the painting. In interviews, JSO said that they only targetted paintings that they knew were behind glass. They never caused any real harm to artwork like reactionary outrage merchants pretended.
Even if you say their methods are ineffective, compare ‘gluing yourself to the road’ to the people who treat posting on twitter or discord as a form of activism.
Just Stop Oil and Palestine Action are both british activist organizations. I would speculate that there is an overlap in membership between the two orgs and that as legal pressure increased on Palestine Action, Just Stop Oil protestors felt that they needed to shift their efforts to something else.
People hated Just Stop Oil here because they were funded by billionaires and did large pointless publicity stunts that didn’t actually further their cause or change anything, they were the epitome of empty liberal protest.
Palestine Action actively puts their lives on the line to destroy factories providing arms to Israel.
they threw shade at anything besides peaceful protest, proclaiming the virtues of western civil disobedience vs the orient’s regimes. i may be paraphrasing but given that until their sanctimonious half measures forced the government crackdown on inconvenient protests they ticked all of the boxes for empire compatible westoid liberals. you should be able to understand hexbear’s reaction from that.
I was going to write like a lengthy response detailing what I meant by this, but I was mostly curious if they have politically advanced and dropped the Anti-Authoritarian rhetoric, but it doesn’t seem like it.
Just stop, someone else will build an alternative. How? Dunno, that’s Authoritarian.
“Authoritarian” is a slippery word, but “decentralized and human-scaled” is a lot more applicable to what we need.
It really doesn’t take much energy to provide humans with their essential needs. With good urban design, each person in cooler climates only requires about two tons of firewood per year for heating and cooking, the equivalent of a small fraction of an acre of pollarded trees. In temperate zones you can supply a city of up to about 200k people just from polycultures and agroforestry within easy biking distance (5 miles from the edge of town).
Most consumer goods get replaced within 1-2 years, promptly becoming trash. Much of the discourse behind “productive forces”, that does not specify what specifically is happening to improve quality of life, is just replicating the paradigm of overconsumption that we have been in since the 1910s. Pursuing a consumer goods economy, instead of building things to last and to be recycled or composted at end-of-life, is presuming a path of ecological devastation.
Keeping the means of existence easily understood and accessible and replicable is the most assured way of checking the power of the bourgeoisie and building a counter-power against them.
why decentralized? I just don’t get the supposed virtues of decentralization. aren’t decentralized systems far less efficient and less powerful? I’m pretty sure decentralizing economies is actually mentioned by Nkrumah as a tool of neocolonialism with regards to Nigeria: “internal balkanization.” we need large coordinated economic planning and that requires centralization.
decentralized and human-scaled" is a lot more applicable to what we need.
No it isn’t. We need a democratic centralized party structure and large scale organization. Only hardcore disciplined communism can defeat capitalism. You couldn’t be more off.
We need a democratic centralized party structure
What is your sample size for making that conclusion, and how many variables are you correcting for?
I’m going to leave aside the last 50 years of history of DemCent parties, because there are no lasting victories to point to in that period.
Only hardcore disciplined communism can defeat capitalism.
There is nothing that says that hardcore disciplined communism means “you have to report up the chain of command just like in a monarchist/capitalist army” or “you shouldn’t be able to converse with your fellow cadres from other divisions without approval or oversight of upper management”. In fact, being adapted to the local conditions, and being able to organically build power starting from a household or neighborhood level is extremely important for being a disciplined communist.
If you don’t believe in decentralization, why are you posting on an instance of Lemmy, instead of assembling a clandestine organization to seize the structure of Reddit, or to make an armed coup that takes control of Reddit and puts it in the People’s hands?
What is your sample size for making that conclusion, and how many variables are you correcting for?
the entirety of the modern age of human history, all attempted and sucessful revolutions and seizing of power (here, successful is defined by: Seized power away from the bourgeois class and held it for more than, say a year).
I’m going to leave aside the last 50 years of history of DemCent parties, because there are no lasting victories to point to in that period.
DPRK, Cuba, China, Vietnam, the USSR, over 50 revolutions that took power throughout the world for at least a year. Whereas non-dem cent parties have never once enacted a revolution or taken power from the bourgeois in any long term, large scale way in human history.
There is nothing that says that hardcore disciplined communism means “you have to report up the chain of command just like in a monarchist/capitalist army” or “you shouldn’t be able to converse with your fellow cadres from other divisions without approval or oversight of upper management”.
This isn’t a mystery you have to guess at. Democratic Centralism is well defined by Lenin and others. Go read it here.
https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1901/witbd/
https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1906/may/20c.htm
In fact, being adapted to the local conditions, and being able to organically build power starting from a household or neighborhood level is extremely important for being a disciplined communist.
Name all of the household and neighborhood organizations that wield political power over the heights of industry in order to enforce industrial policy and regulations.
If you don’t believe in decentralization, why are you posting on an instance of Lemmy
You criticize capitalism, yet you use an iphone. Curious.
DPRK- 1945-53.
Cuba- 1956.
China-1949.
Vietnam- 1975.
the USSR- 1917/1925.“Over 50 revolutions that took power throughout the world for at least a year.”
Burying the lede there. Where are those 50 revolutions now? If you answer that question honestly, you admit to p-hacking.
Zero sustained victories in the past 50 years. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, though. Which is kind of my point. When Lenin was writing those works, there was no Marxist party that had ever seized power, and even republicanism was looking like a special case. Human relations weren’t a “solved” problem then, and they aren’t now.
Reform or revolution is indeed a solved problem. You are hundreds of years behind the dialectic, stuck in 19th century idealism. History has moved on.
The working people of the world made huge victories through class politics via democratic centralized party structure and revolution, and then the world workers movement faced utter defeat when the USSR collapsed from a thousand small cuts, cumulative failures and mistakes. It still made it the furthest anything ever had until then, and we learn from and build upon the most advanced projects ever using those same tools and structures but with small adaptations. The core structure remains though, as it’s still the best thing we’ve ever devised for enacting revolution, taking power for our class and the following human governance despite its flaws, which can be worked at.
Two steps forward, one step back doesn’t mean you should give up or start spinning in circles or going backwards
19th century idealism gave us the illusion of complete command and control rather than a dialectic between suppliers and users.
An emancipatory political practice necessarily involves making technology equally accessible to everyone. There is a set of technologies that does not deplete the ability of the earth to support humanity, and there is a set of technologies that certainly does. The vast majority of human societies today are reliant on ecocidal practices and are therefore self-destructive.
It’s weird to deflect from criticism that says “your preferred ideology had some victories for 60 years but has had 0 victories in the past 50 years” by saying “you"re stuck in the past, history has moved on” while you cling to the ever-receding victories of 1917 and 1949. By the year 2033, the period of successful demcent Marxist revolutions will be surpassed in span by the period in which all subsequent demcent Marxist revolutions went belly-up.
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i don’t know if decentralized is socially sustainable
I don’t know if centralized is socially sustainable. It covers a small minority of human existence, during which it has caused untold amounts of subordination and immiseration of human beings, both in absolute and relative (to other/competing societies) terms. It’s not even certain whether centralization as we know it will be able to exist 150 years from now.
there’s a lot to be said about a clear and unified direction
You don’t need one “leader” at the top to have a clear and unified direction. That is the mindset of the capitalists and monarchists.
you’re talking about class society not centralization.
it’s more that there’s going to be factionalism and separatism with decentralization faster than otherwise, not the need for a “strong leader”. would a spatial hierarchy of councils would be a manifestation of what you’re arguing for?
The entire history of centralized state apparatus is rife with factionalism and separatism, from antiquity where the death of a king led to a power struggle amongst heirs (expanded to the nobility under feudalism), to the past century of leftist parties that are better at splintering than anything else.
Does that not reflect a reality where every hierarchy has fractal struggles for autonomy? And is this not something corroborated by our modern understanding of ecology, neurology, physiology, and entomology of eusocial species?
i confess i probably haven’t invested the same study of the eusocial (i promise you didn’t introduce that word/concept to me) as you have but if you are a communist you’re converging on it from a significantly different memeplex than everyone else here, i’m inclined to go with the other guy’s judgement for this reason at least until i’ve paid my own dues for studying marxist methodologies if for no other reason than that i haven’'t gotten around to “reading theory”. that said it’s a shame that degrowth isn’t centered more in spaces like this. i agree with that
Not sure where to say it but perhaps here… this whole thread about democratic centralism versus ‘decentralization’ seems to miss that methods don’t come in a vacuum. They’re tied to political practice and particular time and place. I hope nobody is advocating for doing what did something in a semi periphery country in the 1910s.
As well, to say infighting is eternal to the reified concept of hierarchy and justify it on human nature obscures things. What causes factionalism? The struggle between correct and incorrect ideas is a cause. Another is the contradiction between theory and practice (see the decrying of ‘Stalinism’ for how this manifests). How will decentralization (in general, not as a specific outgrowth of a political program) prevent this issue, rather than make it more diffuse? A narrative where splits are a result of an abstract drive towards autonomy, where hierarchy is the foremost concern, again, throws away the depth which allows for meaningful analysis.
They announced an end to their campaign mod 2024ish from memory but I think recently said they’d resume but I’m trying to remember where I saw that as searching is failing me.
