My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
After an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.
For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran’s control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is “attempting”, because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.
Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn’t firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they’re using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it’s unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying “Alright, let’s get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls–” and Iran just… hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It’s not a tenable position to hold, and Iran’s capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.
So, what is Iran’s strategy? It’s what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed “debasification”. If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US’s military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US’s strategy, Iran’s is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
The Pentagon removed the names of 4 servicemembers who died in Jordan from their official list of casualties. They explain that this is because “their deaths occurred after President Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April.”
It was a lot better than “Virtual War” ;^]
Updates on the Pengshui landslide from my previous comment via random posts on XHS:
Some blasting has been done, and one of the large rocks on the upper level has been removed. 11 Confirmed fatalities so far, with 50 missing, both numbers are likely to increase, as they are focusing on recovering bodies, and not all people who were present are known. The warning went out 15-30 minutes before the collapse, and civil servants were still telling people to evacuate when it happened (and are now missing in the rubble). There is a mini-bus somewhere in the rubble that has not yet been found, I think this is one of the main sources for uncertainty on casualty numbers. Horrible tragedy all around.
Source is supposedly Chinese news, but I haven’t looked for it.
Please let this statement serve to represent, until further notice, that from this point forth, any and all damages done to Ships, Cargo, or anything related thereto, will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls. These damages may be very substantial but, nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Think he’ll backtrack on this one? According to the international financial system, this is theft. No different from outright confiscating Russia’s frozen assets, which they had already given up on doing.
Trump administration confirms new 12.5pc tariff for Australia
The Trump administration has confirmed a 12.5 per cent tariff will be placed on Australian exports to the US from later today.
The new levy will replace a temporary 10 per cent tariff that was set to expire at the same time.
The Trump administration argues the US is introducing the tariff to take action against forced labour and slavery. It argues the US doing its part to combat forced labour but other countries are not, putting American companies at a competitive disadvantage.
However, many analysts say US President Donald Trump is simply trying to replace the tariffs that were invalidated by the US Supreme Court earlier this year, and the forced labour investigation is merely a pretext.
“As expected, the administration is well on its way toward ensuring that, through a patchwork of investigations, the United States will ultimately have tariffs similar to those [previous tariffs],” Council on Foreign Relations president Michael Froman recently wrote.
In a formal submission to the US trade representative earlier this month, Australia reiterated its opposition to Mr Trump’s tariffs, which have created a sore point in a traditionally strong bilateral friendship.
The submission argued the strength of the US-Australia relationship meant Australia “should not be subject to the proposed action, or any tariff measure whatsoever”, and that such measures would go against the bilateral free trade agreement.
The submission also pointed to the US’s annual Trafficking in Persons Report, which assesses a country’s efforts to prevent forced labour and has consistently given Australia the best possible rating.
It also argued Australia had been working constructively with the US on trade issues, pointing to recently relaxed restrictions on American beef imports, and the critical minerals framework deal signed at the White House last year.
“The strength of this economic relationship … means that Australia should not be subject to the proposed action, or any tariff measure whatsoever,” it said
spacex starship launch scrubbed womp womp
What can you even say? Sure, 10% tariff, who cares. But the US using the “lax enforcement of forced labor bans” excuse is just amazing.
July 23 (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Friday will impose new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the European Union, over allegations of lax enforcement of forced labor bans, just as a temporary 10% global tariff expires, senior administration officials said on Thursday.
The move is the White House’s latest effort to restore President Donald Trump’s campaign vision of a near-global tariff after the U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down his “reciprocal” duties of 10% to 50% imposed last year under a national emergencies law to try to shrink the U.S. trade deficit.
Trump responded to that ruling by imposing a temporary 10% tariff for 150 days that expires at 12:01 a.m. EDT on Friday (0401 GMT), invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law meant to quell balance of payments crises. The new duties will take effect at that exact same moment, with goods in transit exempted until 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 28.
The administration official said that many goods will be exempted from the duties, including oil and gas, fertilizer, certain foodstuffs and goods that are already subject to Section 232 national security tariffs, such as autos, steel, aluminum and copper.
Video of supposedly US HIMARS in Kuwait getting hit & cooking off. People did notice Iranian surveillance drones flying over Kuwait a few days ago, so it is not impossible that Iran spotted them with drones. HIMARS is very mobile so it is hard to hit them without real-time data.
We’re calling our missile shield “we have a fatal weakness”. Anyway, it is terrible how fully captured by EU/Israeli interests Greece became after the whole “bailout” situation. This is probably just free money for Israel, I doubt that Greece will even receive much (if any) weapons.
‘A year ago the United States of America attacked, very powerfully, the Houthis, for their interference with commerce and trade, by shooting at ships. Since that time, and during our conflict with Iran, they have acted very responsibly. Unfortunately, now they are starting up again, shooting at two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if they do this again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves, who I am very disappointed with in that they have, until now, acted very professionally and smart. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP’- ‘The Iran war is going very well. Better than anybody expected.’
Signs of more preparations for more extensive US airstrikes on Iran:
2x EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare/standoff electronic attack aircraft arrived at RAF Fairford this morning, and will be heading towards the Middle East. These aircraft are the replacement of the EC-130H Compass Call aircraft which were rushed to the Middle East shortly after airstrikes started in March. The EA-37Bs then showed up a few weeks later, and they are now back. Only 5x EA-37Bs currently are flying, another 5 on order, and another 12 planned to be ordered. So this is 40% of the entire fleet. A single EA-37B costs 240 million USD for the USAF. Italy is paying more than 300 million USD per aircraft and support. High value assets in limited number being rushed to the Middle East.
An E-11A BACN Datalink communications node aircraft has been deployed to Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia. During the intense US Israeli airstrikes on Iran, 6/7 of the E-11A fleet was there. I think two returned to the USA. So with this flight, now 5/7 of the fleet is in Saudi Arabia. These aircraft act as datalink translation aircraft to enable joint operations between various branches of the US military and it’s allies (Israel, Gulf States). Called “WiFi in the sky” by US troops.
US B-1B strategic bombers took part in US airstrikes on Tuesday evening/early hours of Wednesday morning. The first involvement of US bombers in the recent round of airstrikes. 2x B-1Bs took off, unknown if cruise missiles or gravity bombs were used. It appears one had engine trouble and did not participate in airstrikes on Iran. The other bomber did carry out airstrikes or missile launches.
Source on radio communications
No fighter movements, except for 1x F-16CM that was left behind a few days ago.
IIRC PAC-2 missiles are worse in every way (including being larger and heavier) and PAC-3s are already not doing great. Just throwing money at Raytheon so they can claim they technically did deliver some interceptors. Amazing.
Heard the US launched a B1 Lancer out of the UK, but this is like third hand. Any firm sources?
