I think there’s moreso a possibility for a Ukrainian civil war. The fash will try to patch things up with a revanchist rump state to cover up the leeching of natural resources by the imperial core, and the disgruntled proles will want to topple it for a better deal with anyone else.

Feels like a precursor to a Libya, Syria, Somalia, Iraq, where the stability of the successor govt will always remain compromised until the contradictions between the externally-influencing powers are also resolved.