Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to "immediately" order a ceasefire in Ukraine and start negotiations if Kyiv began withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected what he called an ultimatum by Putin to surrender more territory.
Somehow missile flight time to St Petersburg (also happens to be where I’m from) weren’t an existential threat that lead to an invasion back when Finland joined NATO. Maybe there’s some other factor?
Not to play into Hexbear stereotypes, but unless there are some dramatic political changes in Ukraine, I’d rather Russia invade Ukraine again in 10 years to be honest.
Taking everything you say at face value, the options for Ukraine are:
Take a deal that maybe you can’t trust, but it at least gives you time to breathe.
Keep fighting, and with the war going how it is eventually lose more than what you’ve already lost.
Attempt to draw other states into the conflict so that you have a shot at what might be considered a victory, likely years more down the road under the best of circumstances.
There is no justification for 2, and 3 is highly unlikely – if other states haven’t entered the war already, they’re not going to do so now.
Yeah point 1 is why I support a peace deal along current lines, maybe with a dmz with UN peacekeepers or something idk. Ukraine is the one getting invaded, they need time to breathe far more than Russia does.
Even if you think Russia can’t be trusted and will invade again a few years of peace is better than ceaseless war
Why would they lose more than they’ve already lost? Their expectation is that western aid will continue, allowing them an advantage over Russia in the long term. Russia thinks Western aid will dry up (maybe due to trump being elected) so their anticipated outcome is better in the long run. When the question of enduring western aid is answered, there will be less of a difference in expectations, meaning continued conflict isn’t advantages since it’d cost more than both sides gains expectations.
Everybody knows what game theory is, however the discussion is about military capability and strategy which is best left to people who have experience in these things. Also, game theory makes plenty of assumptions which make it of questionable use in the real world. For example, game theory assumes that all actors are rational, and it’s pretty clear that the west has not been making rational decisions throughout this war.
It includes both perceived military capacity and geopolitical strategy. Game theory helps with the latter.
Here’s more info on theories of Russian victory from a military analyst specializing in Russian military and a defense economist. That should help with the capacity side of the argument.
Ukraine’s Kharkov counteroffensive fizzled. Ukraine’s counteroffensive from last year has lost almost all territorial gains (and then some). In what world does Ukraine stand a chance of reclaiming their lost territories?
The peak of that was during the disastrous offensive Ukraine tried doing last year, and it’s been dwindling rapidly ever since. Even western media now admits that the west lacks the industrial capacity needed to fight a war of attrition on this scale.
Russia could take all of Ukraine rapidly if they began using Western-style bombing campaigns. Every day they make the decision that the status quo of slowly destroying UA’s military capabilities and building infrastructure in the Donbas is more appealing.
I am hopeful that a peace deal can be made before the Western style bombing campaign strategy becomes more favorable.
Oh, is it because decades of incompetence and corruption weakened their already crumbling military? Their lack of a strong economy to support the war effort? Is it because they’re relying on Soviet leftovers instead of modern equipment? The fact their enemy is a motivated, supplied with actually decent munitions by modern/rich countries, and has a competent chain of command?
I have to admit, it is amusing to watch bootlickers fail to keep up with The Narrative. It’s understandable when they’re only a couple talking points behind, because it must be hard for anyone to keep up with all that shifting bullcrap. But often enough I’ll still see lines trotted out like “Russians are fighting with shovels and are amazed to see paved roads.” It’s very rare but every now and then it’s still possible to come across someone who brings up the Ghost of Kiev and still believes it.
That’s the thing with propaganda, it can work for a while, but material reality always wins in the end. I find liberals in particular tend to be susceptible to this because their ideology is rooted in idealism. There’s this idea that you can just invent reality in your mind, and the material world will conform to it.
Russia can claim anything is a political reason. Russia and a lot of western nations have more Nazis than Ukraine, but Russia still used that as a justification.
Well, that is currently changing as Ukraine is now able to target military targets inside Russia, disabling their supply lines.
Ukraine has been restricted to use the supplied weapons systems they got.
They should be able to use the full force of these weapons and drive the Russians out. NATO is being way too restrictive with an invading county bordering on our territory. Russia has shown they are not to be trusted.
We should supply Ukraine with a few tactical nukes, for defense, and see what happens when the kid that’s been bullied suddenly also has the same big guns.
Shouldn’t the Leopard tanks have turned the tide of battle? Or the NATO equipment and training? Or the other round of NATO equipment and training? Or the MANPADS? Or the third shipment of NATO equipment and training? Or the F-16s that are totally coming any day now (which will definitely turn the tide of the war guise! It’s not silly to make a plane that can’t handle dirt on the airway)? What about the drone tactics Ukraine used to terrorbomb russian civilian targets, wasn’t that supposed to turn the tide of the war? What about the bombing of the Crimea bridge, how come that didn’t turn the tide of the war?
You guys keep saying Russia is about to run out of equipment, but they still have stocks and stocks of shells, meanwhile NATO countries are struggling to rearm after having donated so much equipment to Ukraine. Maybe there isn’t a wunderwaffe that will win the war, and maybe it’s senseless to continue this meat-grinder. The Ukrainians don’t want to fight, they have to be forcibly conscripted.
But! If you think they should continue to die for some vague cause, why don’t you go volunteer? They need bodies. The average age is 43, so you won’t be turned away for being “too old” or “too young”. Why don’t you volunteer for Ukraine?
What’s amazing to me is that this stuff is now openly reported in western media, and we still have people running around talking about Russia collapsing any day now. I suspect that a lot of the people who got really invested in project Ukraine stopped paying attention a while back, and they’re just regurgitating the talking points they memorized two years ago.
You stupid motherfuckers have been saying this shit since the war began without even the slightest bit of realization that Russia is an actual industrialized, manufacturing power, while the west has shipped almost all of its actual production to China and SEA
Ukraine is literally constantly running out of shit despite the entirety of NATO dumping military supplies on them and they’re the ones conscripting 40+ year old men but lol “Russia is running on fumes”
“Why hasn’t Russia won yet” because they’re winning, stupid, they are winning a war of attrition, the fact that they’re winning doesn’t mean they can just magically teleport troops into Kiev and declare Game Over. This isn’t some fucking paradox game, moron. The winning move is to keep grinding Ukraine into dust, not whatever dumbass shit you think Russia needs to be doing to win the war.
I can’t stress enough how fucking stupid you are if you think Ukraine’s current conscription reality is in any way indicative of them “bolstering up”
If this was the deal after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, I could see it being ok. However, this is the second invasion in a decade.
What keeps Russia from invading a decade later?
Not having Ukraine join NATO while saying “hey we might give ukraine nukes that could hit Moscow in 4 minutes”
Somehow missile flight time to St Petersburg (also happens to be where I’m from) weren’t an existential threat that lead to an invasion back when Finland joined NATO. Maybe there’s some other factor?
Not to play into Hexbear stereotypes, but unless there are some dramatic political changes in Ukraine, I’d rather Russia invade Ukraine again in 10 years to be honest.
I wouldn’t trust Nazis with nukes.
Taking everything you say at face value, the options for Ukraine are:
There is no justification for 2, and 3 is highly unlikely – if other states haven’t entered the war already, they’re not going to do so now.
Yeah point 1 is why I support a peace deal along current lines, maybe with a dmz with UN peacekeepers or something idk. Ukraine is the one getting invaded, they need time to breathe far more than Russia does.
Even if you think Russia can’t be trusted and will invade again a few years of peace is better than ceaseless war
Why would they lose more than they’ve already lost? Their expectation is that western aid will continue, allowing them an advantage over Russia in the long term. Russia thinks Western aid will dry up (maybe due to trump being elected) so their anticipated outcome is better in the long run. When the question of enduring western aid is answered, there will be less of a difference in expectations, meaning continued conflict isn’t advantages since it’d cost more than both sides gains expectations.
I highly recommend looking into the game theory behind the war. https://youtube.com/@gametheory101
I highly recommend reading what people with actual military experience have to say instead of random propagandists on youtube https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
I agree subject matter experts are important. That’s why I linked to a professor on international relations and war who wrote a book on the subject.
It’s like linking to an economist discussing the subject of quantum physics.
Hmmm? Do you know what game theory is? It explicitly deals with incentive structures and is how academics decode nations motives and goals.
Everybody knows what game theory is, however the discussion is about military capability and strategy which is best left to people who have experience in these things. Also, game theory makes plenty of assumptions which make it of questionable use in the real world. For example, game theory assumes that all actors are rational, and it’s pretty clear that the west has not been making rational decisions throughout this war.
It includes both perceived military capacity and geopolitical strategy. Game theory helps with the latter.
Here’s more info on theories of Russian victory from a military analyst specializing in Russian military and a defense economist. That should help with the capacity side of the argument.
https://youtu.be/7rBlVnc_DEw
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://piped.video/@gametheory101
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
What keeps Russia from taking more territory now until there’s no Ukraine left?
The Ukrainian army and equipment supplied by NATO members I guess?
Ukraine’s Kharkov counteroffensive fizzled. Ukraine’s counteroffensive from last year has lost almost all territorial gains (and then some). In what world does Ukraine stand a chance of reclaiming their lost territories?
I was answering a question which had nothing to do with reclaiming territory?
The peak of that was during the disastrous offensive Ukraine tried doing last year, and it’s been dwindling rapidly ever since. Even western media now admits that the west lacks the industrial capacity needed to fight a war of attrition on this scale.
Russia could take all of Ukraine rapidly if they began using Western-style bombing campaigns. Every day they make the decision that the status quo of slowly destroying UA’s military capabilities and building infrastructure in the Donbas is more appealing.
I am hopeful that a peace deal can be made before the Western style bombing campaign strategy becomes more favorable.
Oh, is it because decades of incompetence and corruption weakened their already crumbling military? Their lack of a strong economy to support the war effort? Is it because they’re relying on Soviet leftovers instead of modern equipment? The fact their enemy is a motivated, supplied with actually decent munitions by modern/rich countries, and has a competent chain of command?
What do I win?
You win living in an alternate universe award, even western media admits none of that is true now.
lol gottem.
I have to admit, it is amusing to watch bootlickers fail to keep up with The Narrative. It’s understandable when they’re only a couple talking points behind, because it must be hard for anyone to keep up with all that shifting bullcrap. But often enough I’ll still see lines trotted out like “Russians are fighting with shovels and are amazed to see paved roads.” It’s very rare but every now and then it’s still possible to come across someone who brings up the Ghost of Kiev and still believes it.
That’s the thing with propaganda, it can work for a while, but material reality always wins in the end. I find liberals in particular tend to be susceptible to this because their ideology is rooted in idealism. There’s this idea that you can just invent reality in your mind, and the material world will conform to it.
Not giving Russia a political reason to for starters.
Russia can claim anything is a political reason. Russia and a lot of western nations have more Nazis than Ukraine, but Russia still used that as a justification.
And Russia will call damn near anyone a Nazi if it’s in their interest.
They will.
Russia is running on fumes and Ukraine is continuing to bolster up. Russia needs time to reup
This has been the narrative since shortly after the war began. All that’s happened since is Russia has slowly advanced.
shouldn’t they have won like a year ago at this point? lol
Pick one: Russia is running on fumes, or Russia should have won a year ago.
The coherent opinion here is that it’s a slow, grinding war and the side that has lost more and more territory as it continued will continue to do so.
Well, that is currently changing as Ukraine is now able to target military targets inside Russia, disabling their supply lines. Ukraine has been restricted to use the supplied weapons systems they got. They should be able to use the full force of these weapons and drive the Russians out. NATO is being way too restrictive with an invading county bordering on our territory. Russia has shown they are not to be trusted. We should supply Ukraine with a few tactical nukes, for defense, and see what happens when the kid that’s been bullied suddenly also has the same big guns.
Shouldn’t the Leopard tanks have turned the tide of battle? Or the NATO equipment and training? Or the other round of NATO equipment and training? Or the MANPADS? Or the third shipment of NATO equipment and training? Or the F-16s that are totally coming any day now (which will definitely turn the tide of the war guise! It’s not silly to make a plane that can’t handle dirt on the airway)? What about the drone tactics Ukraine used to terrorbomb russian civilian targets, wasn’t that supposed to turn the tide of the war? What about the bombing of the Crimea bridge, how come that didn’t turn the tide of the war?
You guys keep saying Russia is about to run out of equipment, but they still have stocks and stocks of shells, meanwhile NATO countries are struggling to rearm after having donated so much equipment to Ukraine. Maybe there isn’t a wunderwaffe that will win the war, and maybe it’s senseless to continue this meat-grinder. The Ukrainians don’t want to fight, they have to be forcibly conscripted.
But! If you think they should continue to die for some vague cause, why don’t you go volunteer? They need bodies. The average age is 43, so you won’t be turned away for being “too old” or “too young”. Why don’t you volunteer for Ukraine?
Meanwhile in the real world
lol notice there’s no response to this
What’s amazing to me is that this stuff is now openly reported in western media, and we still have people running around talking about Russia collapsing any day now. I suspect that a lot of the people who got really invested in project Ukraine stopped paying attention a while back, and they’re just regurgitating the talking points they memorized two years ago.
You stupid motherfuckers have been saying this shit since the war began without even the slightest bit of realization that Russia is an actual industrialized, manufacturing power, while the west has shipped almost all of its actual production to China and SEA
Ukraine is literally constantly running out of shit despite the entirety of NATO dumping military supplies on them and they’re the ones conscripting 40+ year old men but lol “Russia is running on fumes”
“Why hasn’t Russia won yet” because they’re winning, stupid, they are winning a war of attrition, the fact that they’re winning doesn’t mean they can just magically teleport troops into Kiev and declare Game Over. This isn’t some fucking paradox game, moron. The winning move is to keep grinding Ukraine into dust, not whatever dumbass shit you think Russia needs to be doing to win the war.
I can’t stress enough how fucking stupid you are if you think Ukraine’s current conscription reality is in any way indicative of them “bolstering up”