A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the first nuclear icebreaker ever built, the Lenin, which entered service in 1957 in the USSR and decommissioned in 1989. It is now a museum ship in Murmansk. I just think it’s neat.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

The last week has had a lot of Trump admin dipshittery that isn’t important enough to be worth remarking on, so I’m just going to skip right past all that. The sanctions campaign against Iran appears to have stalled before it even left the starting line, with China saying that, nope, they aren’t going to cut off their ally for the sake of their enemy. From what I’ve gathered from Naked Capitalism’s (albeit limited) reporting on the state of Iran’s economy, the impression I get is that while inflation is running kinda wild, everything else, including state revenues, are doing sufficiently well that there isn’t going to be an economic collapse this year nor probably next year if we assume a continued no-deal situation over Hormuz.

The underlying geopolitical situation has had some interesting little developments. Iran and Oman appears to have worked out their plan for joint control over Hormuz. Ansarallah is continuing their explosive campaign against the Saudis, who are now begging the US for help. Additionally, the ever-barking never-biting Türkiye is showing some signs that they might soon, finally, after three years of witnessing outright genocide, do 1 (one) (the first numerical digit) action that isn’t to the Zionist’s direct benefit, by putting up a modicum of resistance in defence of their puppet in Syria; but, quite frankly, I’m not holding my breath on anything truly substantial happening while Erdogan’s in charge.

The state of oil flows in and around Hormuz are very hotly debated right now. Many of the oil flow numbers can be dismissed out of hand because they aren’t reflective of the reality of Iranian control and vision of the strait. Due to the narrowness of the strait, full visual coverage of the ships travelling through the channel can be achieved with technology no more advanced than a dozen people with binoculars and a not-especially-tall mountain. However, figures that are around 3-5 million barrels per day (compared to the pre-war 20 million per day) seems plausible when including Iran allowing some allied vessels out (notably Iraqi and Chinese vessels, among others). This, plus China’s rather odd actions in the oil market over the last six months, have resulted in the US’s SPR now draining at “only” 4-6 million barrels per week, compared to 8-9 earlier in the war. However, the war’s impact on fertilizer and diesel stockpiles and prices are now unignorable even to those with their heads in the sand, with anxiety steadily building in the mainstream media about food crises next year.

Meanwhile, Trump has decided to pick fights with Canada due to their strange unwillingness to graciously hand over their sovereignty to the US, with the two countries now in a tariff war. That being said, oil seems to be one product that neither side wants to fight over: the US needs a producer, and Canada needs a customer. The only other country in the vicinity with major oil reserves is Venezuela, who has been in the news a lot lately for precisely this reason, but they simply don’t have the production to do much of anything to alleviate the US’s stockpile issues and likely still won’t by the time Trump has left office, and so they can be safely dismissed as a significant player in this ongoing global energy conflict.

On the subject of naval trade routes, a fascinating development is that Russia has finally unveiled the Northern Sea Route as a regular maritime passage, with a small fleet of eight Chinese vessels taking the route as a test run in mid-August. From Shanghai to Hamburg, the route is a little over 7000 nautical miles and goes through no chokepoints (though I suppose the Bering Strait could hypothetically become one), compared to the Suez route which is nearly 11,000 nautical miles and goes through three chokepoints (Malacca, Bab el-Mandab, Suez). Russia has the world’s only nuclear icebreaker fleet, and the increased power from those reactors is necessary to provide the sheer force to break up the ice along the route, making them even more uniquely situated to benefit from the route. Many countries, China foremost among them, have identified the advantage of not being subject to chokepoints and hostile waters as the US navy continues its rapid transition to outright piracy, so it’ll be interesting to see to what extent the route is adopted in the coming years.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    18 days ago

    dw.com - Why is Israel’s military presence growing in Syria?

    The layout was fubar and I only was interested in the text. I used right-click to remove all the stuff I wasn’t interested in - the photos, the Twitter embeds, and other embeds that didn’t load for me. I might have inadvertantly lopped off a paragraph. After I read the article I realized the layout was screwed up because it was a mobile link (amp.dw.com) and I’m a desktop.

    Full text

    It’s been two years, four months, 24 days and five hours, said Syrian man Ahmad Hassan al-Din when asked how long it’s been since he last saw his son. In April 2024, Israeli soldiers took Saddam, who had just turned 17, from farmland near the Golan Heights, a part of Syria Israel has occupied since 1967.

    “Saddam had gone to feed the animals early in the morning,” al-Din, who’s from the village of Jubata al-Khashab in the Quneitra district near Golan, told DW. “I called him on the phone, and he told me, ‘Everything’s fine.’ But then later we saw with our own eyes how they took the boy, handcuffed and shackled.”

    Al-Din filmed Israeli soldiers marching his son through fields. The video, which he forwarded to DW, has previously been verified by open-source investigators at France24 and by human rights organizations. “They said they took him because he was trespassing on the territory of the state of Israel,” al-Din continued. “Even though that area is our farmland and we have a valid UN permit to work there.”

    To enter this buffer area, Syrian farmers and shepherds needed a special pass from the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, or UNDOF. The latter was set up to make sure Israeli and Syrian forces kept their distance after a 1974 disengagement agreement. Humanitarian organizations have since discovered Saddam, now 19, is likely in a prison in Israel.

    DW asked the Israeli military what Saddam had been charged with and under which legal system. A spokesperson sent DW a statement similar to one previously sent to other media outlets and human rights organizations that said Israel detains Syrians that it suspects might wish it harm. The statement did not specify whether the army considered the farmer’s son to be one of those individuals.

    Since Saddam was taken, the Syrian teenager’s story has become one of many similar accounts in this part of southern Syria. After the fall of the country’s dictatorial Assad regime in December 2024, Israel took control of the UN-patrolled demilitarized zone. Senior Israeli politicians declared the 1974 agreement void and said troops would be in the area temporarily to protect Israel from cross-border attacks.

    However, since then Israel’s presence in Syria has become more permanent. In November 2025, UNDOF told reporters Israel had set up 10 bases in the area. From these bases, Israeli soldiers are making near-daily incursions into the Syrian provinces of Daraa and Quneitra.

    “These incursions typically involve armored patrols through populated areas, followed by the establishment of temporary checkpoints on main roads, where all passing Syrian civilians are stopped, searched, questioned, and have their phones examined. In some cases, biometric data is also collected,” Syrian consultancy, Karam Shaar Advisory, wrote in January.

    Israeli soldiers have also raided homes, businesses and schools and fenced off farmland and water sources. Quneitra authorities sent DW a statement claiming Israeli troops had seized more than 200 sheep, destroyed drinking water wells, razed horticultural areas and destroyed buildings.

    Mousa Khalil, a resident of Quneitra, recounted how his home, a two-story building with four apartments in Hamidiyah village, was completely destroyed by Israeli troops last year. “I am 65 years old,” he told DW. “At this age, finding decent work has become extremely difficult, forcing me to accept whatever I can find to provide for my family of eight and to save money to rebuild our home.”

    Over the past few months, the number of these kinds of incursions has been rising, and Israeli soldiers have also been moving farther inside Syria. The Sijil Center, based in Syria, documents Israeli violations of Syrian territory. Between August 25 and December 31, 2025, the center recorded 818 incidents, or 45 incidents per week. Since the beginning of this year, the center has counted 1,632 incursions, bringing the average to 48 incidents weekly.

    The Sijil Center also documents how many Syrians have been detained by Israel and says that, since December 2024, around 200 people have been apprehended. Unlike al-Din’s son, most were released within 24 hours after being interrogated. Between 40 and 50 Syrians are thought to remain in Israeli jails, including four or five who were in custody before the change of Syrian government in 2024.

    Soldiers coming across a border and detaining citizens of another country, then transferring them back to their own prisons, is clearly a breach of international law, experts say. Organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have described Israel’s actions in southern Syria as possible war crimes.

    Since the fall of the previous Syrian government, Israeli politicians have insisted that southern Syria must be a “demilitarized zone.” The Israeli military previously told other news outlets that it has “apprehended individuals where there was reasonable suspicion of their involvement in terrorist activity.” The army also acknowledged the construction of new military bases to prevent attacks and smuggling.

    “The area is a playground for terror organizations, armed groups and militias,” a senior officer told Israel’s Ynet last week. Speaking to media outlet Syria Direct, locals in Quneitra said they weren’t sure whether Israel is trying to occupy their towns, or whether it is doing this to pressure the Syrian government.

    Senior Syrian and Israeli politicians had been involved in talks, with mediation from the US, to potentially reactivate the 1974 disengagement agreement. But talks fell apart late in 2025 and in the intervening months, Israeli incursions into Syria increased. In an analysis this week, Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior non-resident fellow at the Washington-based New Lines Institute, outlined reasons for Israel’s behavior in Syria.

    “The first factor that drives Israel’s Syria approach is the collective trauma of October 7th, which left the Israeli public and security establishment fearing a repeated cross-border invasion,” she explained. Other motives include Israel’s assumption that the new Syrian government is hostile, even though it has continuously said it doesn’t want to fight and has not launched any attacks.

    “Because Israel reads the government in Damascus as jihadist and subservient to Turkey, its overarching goal is a central government too weak to threaten it,” Tsurkov wrote. On Tuesday night this week, Israeli jets bombed the Abu Duhur military air base in northern Syria shortly after a Turkish delegation had visited it. Senior Israeli politicians have recently predicted their next war could be with Syria or Turkey.

    Following the attack on the airbase Syria’s Foreign Minister was interviewed by US news outlet Axios. He said that during year-long negotiations on a security deal, significant progress was made but Israel walked away.

    “Security cannot be one-sided,” he said, noting that Syria was open to further talks. “Just as we take Israeli security concerns into account, Israel must also take Syrian security concerns into account and seriously address our concerns regarding its expansionist policy and military operations inside Syrian territory.”

    In a recent study, Syrian think tank Etana came up with some other reasons for Israel’s actions in Syria. Israeli control of Syria’s tallest peak, Mount Hermon, also allows Israel to surveil Lebanon, researchers noted. Water security could also play a part, they suggested. “After its post-Assad intervention in Syria, Israel now has direct control of, or indirect access to, most of the areas rich in surface water resources in Quneitra and western Daraa,” they wrote.

    Recent history shows that Israeli security zones often turn into permanently occupied or annexed territories, said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Locals like Khalil from Hamidiyah have complained that their own government isn’t helping them.

    But in fact, in the face of Israel’s military superiority, the Syrians are probably doing the best they can, Hellyer told DW. “They’re continuing on the diplomatic track because they know very well that they have no military option here,” he said.

    “All this is part and parcel of what I would describe as Israeli paramountcy,” Hellyer added, referring to a concept that describes how powerful states override weaker ones by sheer force of arms. “It basically means they are paramount. They have the ability to do what they want. Nobody has the ability to say no, and laws and rules are out the window, without any consensus building at all,” he concluded.

    A related Bluesky thread

    Syrians who live under and near the new Israeli occupied territories since 2024 say that Israel is turning southwestern Syria into a new West Bank— checkpoints, military bases, closed roads, demolition orders on villages, the kidnapping of civilians into military prisons without charge, and more…

    https://bsky.app/profile/diplomatofnight.com/post/3mun4rxhgp22c

    • refolde [she/her, any]@hexbear.net
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      18 days ago

      Fuck Israel and fuck the cancerous sub-humanremoveds who support them.

      I will never accept them, even if they force their way to the top of the fucking world and rewrite all of history to center on themselves. I will always hate them. I will always hate their “people” I will always want to see them getting murked and killed. And if Greater Israel becomes a permanent thing that stands the test of time and somehow emerges as the premier world power somehow (I mean who’s gonna stop them), then fuck it. Full misanthropy we go, humanity has no future, and deserves no future for allowing this to happen, let it all burn. Especially if leftists start going “well what can you do Israel is clearly here to stay we have to reconcile with Israel. We have to make peace with Israel. We have to accept their version of history. Palestinians? They never existed. Anyways we can push Israel left, we just have to follow their rules and get down on our knees and kiss the ground they walk on, and also gift a toddler to them to earn the privilege of even so much as standing in their presence”

    • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
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      18 days ago

      The US may have lost the Iran war. Iran may have ‘won’ in so far as they didn’t fall to the US and deterred them from a full invasion or larger bombing campaign.

      But the zionist entity is the real winner I’m sorry to say:

      • Gets to continue genocide in Gaza and west bank in slow motion which most people have forgotten about
      • Invades Lebanon without consequences, starts annexing and setting up settlements, gets Iran to drop pulling back from parts it has already annexed from its ceasefire demands and settle for at most stopping at the current line of contact and a ceasefire. Thus advancing greater “israel” project to next stage alone with continued annexation and genocide of Palestinians.
      • Still invading Syria, CIA jihadists in power just let them do it and adding it as part of their advancing faster than any time in recent decades progress of greater “israel”.
      • Got the US to make a big pass at Iran, sew some terror and gauged the loyalty of Europeans and got to sit out most of the retaliation which was reserved for GCC vassals and US bases.
      • Shifted attention from their unpopular genocide which was still lingering on the periphery to Trump’s unpopular and buffoonish failed attempt to topple Iran’s government and war on it as well as a looming oil crisis.
      • Still has GCC states in Abraham accords loyal to it and intertwined with it, probably be part of new security architecture since it’s apparent US alone cannot do it and the zionists make tons of exotic weapons including cyberweapons for use in repression of GCC people’s who don’t like their collaborationist regimes.
      • Still high on toppling Assad and installing anti-Iran/anti-Hezbollah CIA jihadists in Syria thus cementing control of their neighbor to make annexing it even easier.
      • Hezbollah forced to agree to ceasing while zionists continue to fire because Lebanon is run by comprador dogs who could create a civil war against them any moment now.

      People talk of the zionist entity collapsing but it looks stronger than ever to me. The US may be suffering for its part but the entity has made some huge gains in the past 3 years, more than the past 25 I’d say.

      As always isntrael

      • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        18 days ago

        It may look like they are winning in the short term but they are the most isolated they have ever been. The ally they depend on militarily is a paper tiger, getting ejected from the region. It has been proven that Western weapons can’t protect the GCC, and while the current crop of compradors may not adjust to that news, no government is immune to change. Everybody in the world who isn’t a neoliberal politician deeply hates the entity now. When the Zionist tide finally starts to turn back they will have no friends left to help them.

        • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          18 days ago

          you are aware that entity was hated over lebanon war in the 80s as well? couple of isis plots here and there, some women rights concern trolling, and libs will back were they were in the 00s

          • pongo1231 [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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            18 days ago

            This time there is thousands of hours of live streamed footage not just from the victim’s PoV but also from the genocider’s PoV voluntarily filming themselves enacting in horrific acts and celebrating it, which everyone has trivially access to and can’t be swept away from the internet. I very much doubt people will forget.

        • just_an_average_joe@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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          17 days ago

          I think gulf states have already started moving away from USA towards china. We shouldn’t ignore that Pakistan and China have been an ally for a long time, even if the current regime thinks it is more beneficial to ally with USA rn. IMO they, just like everybody else, are not ideologically alligned with USA and co, rather materially aligned. And material conditions are changing.

          Remember the india vs pakistan in 2025. Deepdown Pakistan knows that when shit hits the fan, it is china who helps. And gulf countries started buying “Pakistani jets & missiles” (which are very much chinese). I think the the Pakistani regime also knows and actively try to play both sides for personal gain. I don’t see how it will play in their favor if they continue supporting USA after this iran debacle.

      • Pentacat [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        18 days ago

        They’ll be lucky to last the next 2 years. Once the US bases are done, there’s really only one place left to attack outside of gulf states infrastructure.

          • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
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            18 days ago

            And when that happens Iran will smack them back a bit then give them off-ramps again because (and I’m tired of repeating this) they have fucking nuclear weapons and an avowed policy of using them in their project is in danger of falling not just on Arabs who they consider subhumans but even Europeans in vengeance for not defending them.

            • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
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              18 days ago

              That’s going to be true until Israel actually does use its nuclear weapons, but there’s a not insignificant chance that Israel will launch a “tactical nuke” long before they’re actually in an existentially dire position because they believe they can get away with it.

        • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
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          18 days ago

          Ridiculous. We’re not talking about wishes. If we’re talking wishes I wish they fell next weekend but that’s not the case.

          No sign US bases are going to be pushed out entirely despite all the Iranian propaganda. It’s still an open question. Possible yes, certain no. US bases operational ability has been for the time being impacted very negatively but they still have big bases in Saudi Arabia with hardened aircraft shelters among others and are still hosting 50,000 troops in the region which tends to tell you those bases are far, far, far from totally destroyed (they’ve taken out some aircraft, blown up some radar and a few buildings and good for Iran but it’s not the same as destroying these bases beyond the ability to function at all).

          Finally. There is no sign Iran wants to try to take down a rabid, nuclear armed, declared omnicidal fascist settler colony by openly attacking them again as they’ve never attacked first and always avoided open war by providing off-ramps. Please see all the evidence from history that Iran has no intention of waging a holy war at all costs to bring down the zionist entity. It’ll continue arming resistance groups but those aren’t going to move the needle.

          It took years of world-wide ostracizing for South Africa’s regime to fall. The zionist entity still has the full support of the US and the EU and all the other usual suspects.

          • orlando [they/them]@hexbear.net
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            18 days ago

            the zionist prime minister has come out saber rattling at iran in the last 24 hours. they will attack first and sooner than they’d get away with unscathed. i know their “nuclear arsenal” will defend them but it won’t keep them safe from their arrogance forever.

      • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        18 days ago

        you are forgetting integrating (or returning) into latam rightwing politics, while west and middle east can’t boycott a single company, cause apparently their nuggets too good or some shit

      • guolai [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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        18 days ago

        This is a hard pill to swallow. Unless something happens within the next century (or within the war itself), it’s likely going to be case that Zionist gets to nudge on. A massive regret and setback. A reminder of how much money and power just rules over this damned world.

        The only saving grace is that U.S. failure could nudge the needle but given how ruthless the Zionist entity has been in stifling anyone who even remotely stands against them, it’s unlikely even if the old monsters die with the reins, that anyone even thinks of being anti-zionists will be outed before they even get any chance.

        I’ll refuse to accept the state as long as I live. There is no karma, no one will get comeuppance but we will still try to see it through.

        • refolde [she/her, any]@hexbear.net
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          18 days ago

          It is a moral duty to always hate Israel, Israelis, and all of their enablers. I’m going full misanthrope if Israel is triumphant. I mean this whole ordeal and the world’s response to it has made me give up on any idea of humanity’s inherent “goodness” and I don’t want to hear any of the fucking tired old lectures or old cliches of “muh humanity is cooperative in nature” because all the evidence I need is right here: humanity is all about power and dominance. Those who have power support Israel, those who do not have power can only helplessly resist.

          At any rate I’ve been considering just killing myself so I don’t have to live in a world ruled by these baby-fucking removed. It’s a morton’s fork either way: I die the babyfuckers are happy that another anti-zionist is dead, I live and the babyfuckers get to have fun tormenting another anti-zionist. I’m going to be even more fucking vindictive in the likely event leftists decide to just shrug their shoulders, hold hands with Israelis and sing kumbaya or whatever. Have fun building Socialism with Israeli characteristics you eternal losers. What a fucking farce. Better to die than to witness any more of this embarrassment. I’d at least want to accomplish “some things” before I die, but it’s also possible I mgith just lose my mind completely and off myself early.

          • guolai [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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            18 days ago

            I feel you, refolde. I get the pull towards misanthropy everyday. That being said, regardless what you choose to do, I’ll try to stick alive. As much as there will be a point where I reached the same bottom doomerism that I was in for the past three years, I have resolved to at least stay alive to accomplish as much as I can as pointless of an endeavor it can be. I have far more value alive to do something even if I don’t have the ability to do much.

            What I want/need to do, however, I don’t know but even if I end up dead for whatever reason (Israelis or otherwise) being just another number, it would be the choice I made before it is sealed for me.

    • very_poggers_gay [they/them]@hexbear.net
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      18 days ago

      all these *states *that israel so freely invades, occupies, terrorizes, undermines, and more… and libs still think a 2 state solution is a solution… israel needs to be completely dismantled and the region wholly decolonized