A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn’t AI generated, because I’m very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.

Now that the initial shock of the war’s beginning is over and there’s a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side’s victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn’t any negotiations, and it’s just attrition to the death, then it’s gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There’s the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran’s strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren’t seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West’s utter lack of reliability with reporting… well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I’m predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran’s government generally isn’t going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    42·
    2 months ago

    FT live updates summary

    • President Donald Trump said there would be “no deal” with Iran “except unconditional surrender”.

    • Brent crude settled 8.5 per cent higher on Friday, topping $92 a barrel and finishing at its highest level since September 2023. The price of US oil exceeded $90 a barrel, its highest level since the war began, up almost 36 per cent since last Friday’s close.

    • One Middle Eastern crude oil benchmark topped $100 a barrel as refiners compete for barrels. Goldman Sachs said oil could hit $150 if Strait of Hormuz flows remain impacted.

    • US equity markets closed more than 1 per cent lower as the oil rally stoked concerns about inflation.

    • Iran’s president said some countries have started “mediation efforts”. Egypt and China have both said they will attempt to mediate in the conflict.

    • Israel has been striking Hizbollah infrastructure in southern Beirut. Waves of US and Israeli strikes continued to pummel Iran.

    • Iran launched a new missile attack on Israel. Qatar thwarted a drone attack on the US’s largest base in the Middle East.

    • Air travel in and out of the Middle East is slowly returning after tens of thousands of flights were cancelled, with Etihad resuming flights.

    An update

    Goldman says oil could rise to $150 if Strait of Hormuz flows remain impacted

    Oil could rise as high as $150 a barrel if shipping companies continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz for the rest of the month, according to Goldman Sachs. In a note on Friday, the bank’s analysts said oil could climb to $100 “next week” and potentially “exceed the 2008 and 2022 peaks” if flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, “were to remain depressed throughout March”.

    Brent surged to almost $130 a barrel shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and to almost $150 a barrel at the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

      • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
        24·
        2 months ago

        I’m worried as the price of gas skyrockets - Trump will become totally out of control and insane. Any day - I half expect him to make a passing comment to some reporters about “next week’s big reveal” but he walks away and ignores their shouted questions. And it turns out about a week later he tries to do regime change in Cuba in a day.