Hamas has a lot of hostages now, including some high value ones from the IDF. They also severely humiliated the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus, reminding the world that Israel is not invulnerable and demonstrating that Hamas is a more formidable force than ever, which will help them get more international support. I think Hamas is in a strong position to secure concessions from Israel.
I read it completely the other way, that while I am NOT claiming it , there is a possibility hardliners elements in the IDF and Mossad that allowed it.
I also don’t believe the hardliners in power give a shit about the hostages. They’ve been waiting for enough cover to clear out the entirity of Gaza while avoiding universal global condemnation–and now they have that chance. Plus Israel is now unified, the human rights voices will be as surpassed as US anti-wsr voices were after 9/11.
For the horrible fascist hardliners in Israel this is exactly what they want. And I think Hamas is done. The question is really what will happen to the innocent civilians? And also will the West Bank face any aggression and crimes (beyond the normal ones they regularly deal with)?
I really think this was the worst thing Hamas could have done, for themselves and the civilians who will suffer because of them.
I suppose there is a non-zero chance that Israel decides to forsake the hostages, but I think the political cost would be too high. Also, that would really hurt IDF morale and discipline if there’s suddenly a new policy that they won’t negotiate your release if you get captured.
Something else to consider is that maybe Gaza kind of serves as a perpetual crisis that helps the Israeli hardliners maintain their grip on power. They might still want to keep it around.
Hamas has a lot of hostages now, including some high value ones from the IDF. They also severely humiliated the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus, reminding the world that Israel is not invulnerable and demonstrating that Hamas is a more formidable force than ever, which will help them get more international support. I think Hamas is in a strong position to secure concessions from Israel.
Really? I find that shocking.
I read it completely the other way, that while I am NOT claiming it , there is a possibility hardliners elements in the IDF and Mossad that allowed it.
I also don’t believe the hardliners in power give a shit about the hostages. They’ve been waiting for enough cover to clear out the entirity of Gaza while avoiding universal global condemnation–and now they have that chance. Plus Israel is now unified, the human rights voices will be as surpassed as US anti-wsr voices were after 9/11.
For the horrible fascist hardliners in Israel this is exactly what they want. And I think Hamas is done. The question is really what will happen to the innocent civilians? And also will the West Bank face any aggression and crimes (beyond the normal ones they regularly deal with)?
I really think this was the worst thing Hamas could have done, for themselves and the civilians who will suffer because of them.
The Netanyahu government famously traded over one thousand Palestinian prisoners, including some lifers, for a single live IDF soldier. There have also been significant trades just for captured remains. So, the precedent is that Israel will pay a big price to get its people back.
I suppose there is a non-zero chance that Israel decides to forsake the hostages, but I think the political cost would be too high. Also, that would really hurt IDF morale and discipline if there’s suddenly a new policy that they won’t negotiate your release if you get captured.
Something else to consider is that maybe Gaza kind of serves as a perpetual crisis that helps the Israeli hardliners maintain their grip on power. They might still want to keep it around.
You’d be quite wrong to think that.
Oh wow thank you for the detailed analysis.