A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Students in front of the Mujahidin Grand Mosque in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, with an ominous, thick haze obscuring vision.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

The last week has been quite a busy one for world energy markets. The first big piece was the reveal that the US is removing sanctions on Russian fuel exports until April 2027. This has been yet another fascinating collision of the Ukraine and Iran Wars, and, of course, another example of all the complicated situations that countries that are otherwise geopolitically aligned can get themselves into, as obviously Russia being allowed to export more diesel does bend the curve on shortages to a degree. China “helping” the West by reducing their demand for foreign oil purchases for much of this year as they drew from their enormous domestic oil reserves is another example of this kind of dynamic. Given how much Russia has helped Iran - especially now, with large increases of Caspian Sea vessels helping Iran mitigate some of the blockade’s impact - I don’t view this as a betrayal, but more of a unfortunately necessary geopolitical tactic, particularly if increased Russian state revenue lets them defeat the NATO-backed forces they’re fighting a bit easier. Regardless, it would be very unfortunate if most of Russia’s diesel went directly to the US and not to other struggling countries (not least among them, Cuba), as that would give the US a bit more road to kick the can down.

Ukraine has not taken this news well. It can be hard to figure out to what degree Trump is using kayfabe in any particular situation, but Ukraine immediately striking a Russian diesel export station (to which Russia retaliated by knocking out power throughout much of Kiev) seems to have genuinely annoyed him, e.g. saying that Ukraine should get a new leader. He also tried his classic move of willing a ceasefire into existence purely by social media decree. This worked during the Twelve Day War, but not here - at least not yet. I’m currently cautiously disregarding rumors that the US is going to actually take away intelligence or material support from Ukraine. It’s not impossible, and would actually be another data point in the trend of the US withdrawing from Europe (with their bombers evacuating their UK base very recently too), but this antagonization of Russia has been a plot in the making for over a decade, and I would be surprised if Trump was allowed by the powers that be to interrupt this plan in any meaningful way. Perhaps there will be some largely symbolic move instead.

Over in West Asia, Ansarallah is tidying up their encirclement of Taiz, with the noose tightening around PLC forces. The Saudi counteroffensive was very Ukrainian; i.e. it existed mostly as a media phenomenon, but somehow even more half-hearted. Their sole territorial acquisition up to me writing this is 10-20 miles of largely empty coastal plains and an airstrip that Ansarallah, without an airforce, has no real use of. In return for Saudi bombing, Ansarallah has continued hitting oil infrastructure, and additionally escalated by striking terminals at King Khalid airport. Ansarallah gave several warnings to immediately evacuate everybody inside, and the Saudis did not even bother to sound the alarm of an incoming missile, which is emblematic of their desperation to maintain the illusion of the pre-war status quo. The strike on Terminal 3 killed about a dozen people and injured a few hundred. While Saudi airlines are trying to maintain operations, several Western airliners are pausing flights for now, which mirrors the air blockade that the Saudis have forced on Yemen for several years. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated strikes on tankers both inside the Strait of Hormuz and far outside it, as it truly starts to slam the hammer down on what limited illegal transits were making it through. This comes in the form of both missile/drone strikes and naval mines and will keep physical oil prices elevated well into the short and medium terms if maintained. Additionally, the US continues its reported buildup of forces for another try at striking Iran, possibly before the midterms, but I sincerely don’t know what they could possibly hope to achieve beyond trying to get more votes from chest-thumping jingoistic morons while yet further degrading their position in the region militarily and economically.

Meanwhile, over in Southeast Asia, air pollution has dramatically increased over the past few months due to manmade wildfires in Indonesian forests and peatlands, which were caused by profit-seeking slash-and-burn farmers clearing land with fire, and then further exacerbated by one of the worst El Ninos on record. This bourgeois idiocy has caused untold environmental damage, hundreds of thousands of cases of respiratory illnesses throughout Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, prolonged closures of major institutions like schools, and required the distribution of oxygen cylinders throughout parts of the populace to try and keep them alive and at least vaguely healthy.


Last week’s thread is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • MoA on the “MOAB” BS:

    The U.S. military does not have a bomber that can carry a MOAB. To drop such a bomb a C-130 type transport plane will have to carry it directly over the target and drop it from its loading ramp with the help of a drogue parachute.

    A slow flying C-130 will hardly make it to the middle of the well defended Iranian airspace. This would be a suicide mission.

    Pickaxe Mountain is said to have deep tunnels under thick granite. All a MOAB could do is to close some entries to the tunnels. Something an excavator could reverse in a day or two.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/10/dropping-moab-on-iran.html

  • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    Venezuela’s state airline Conviasa will reportedly shut down flights to Havana at the end of the month. After being Cuba’s closest ally for 25+ years, and a co-driver of regional integration, the Venezuelan government is now collaborating with the US’ murderous blockade

    https://nitter.perennialte.ch/venanalysis/status/2111198249604247728

    by the time usa installs the nominal libs in power, there would be nothing left to do (outside of dumping communes for the real estate apartments gatherings concerned with real estate value (hoa by another name). *this is rumored for now by some account and retweeted by venezuela analysis, so

  • Socialism_Is_The_Alternative [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    Russian forces have liberated Dobropolye (a small city in the Donetsk People’s Republic):

    https://rt-english.com/russia/647320-russian-forces-liberate-key-ukrainian-stronghold-donbass/

    They also liberated two smaller settlements (Varvarovka and Nikolaevka) in the northeastern Kharkov oblast encirclement:

    https://sputnikglobe.com/20261016/russia-liberates-varvarovka-nikolaevka-settlements-in-kharkov-region-1124888294.html

    Update, here is a map video showing the clearing of the encirclement (it’s cleared):

    https://vkvideo.ru/video-228568353_456343474

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Brazil polls this week:

    Datafolha

    • Bolsonaro 51%
    • Lula 49%

    Poderdata/AYA

    • Bolsonaro 50%
    • Lula 50%

    The US & Israel have a fight on their hands. Despite deploying the full weight of big tech manipulation + unlimited resources, its not wrapped up for them yet.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Lula gains ground, erases Flávio’s lead, and opens a path to a comeback in the second round - Diario de Goias

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    A PoderData/Aya poll shows the Workers’ Party candidate on a continuous upward trajectory, jumping from 47% to 50% of valid votes in one week and reopening the race for the presidency.

    With nine days to go before the second round of voting for the presidential election, scheduled for October 25, the race for the Planalto Palace has taken on new dimensions. The latest round of the PoderData/Aya poll , released this Friday (16), indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has made consistent progress and is now numerically tied at 50% of valid votes with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ( PL ).

    The result crowns a rapid reaction from the Workers’ Party. In the first round of voting, Flávio had registered 47.03% of the valid votes against Lula’s 45.16%, a difference of 1.87 percentage points. In the first post-election measurement, released on October 8th, the PL candidate opened up a six-point lead (53% to 47%).

    Three days ago, on October 13th, the margin narrowed to two points (51% to 49%), and now the distance between the candidates has been reduced to zero, consolidating Lula’s recovery and reopening the electoral contest.

    The survey data, which only considers valid votes (excluding blank and null votes), shows a reversal in voting intentions. In less than two weeks, the president’s campaign overcame the initial setback of the first round and altered the electoral dynamics.

    • Poll from October 8th: Flávio Bolsonaro 53% vs. Lula 47% (a difference of 6 percentage points);
    • Poll from October 13th: Flávio Bolsonaro 51% vs. Lula 49% (a difference of 2 percentage points, a technical tie);
    • Poll from October 16th: Flávio Bolsonaro 50% x 50% Lula (absolute numerical tie).

    Analysis of the electoral landscape suggests that the reversal of expectations and Lula’s advance result from a combination of militant mobilization, digital presence, and the coordinated use of the government’s institutional agenda. In recent days, street demonstrations and mobilizations, called for in various Brazilian cities, have been joined by a digital counter-offensive led by influencers, artists, and members of the youth caucus, which have given more dynamism to the Workers’ Party campaign.

    Furthermore, the labor agenda, solidified with the recent Senate approval of the end of the 6x1 work schedule, has given the current president a positive image among a large part of the electorate. This is coupled with new commitments, such as the intensification of campaign promises like the announcement of free urban public transportation on weekends throughout the country, responding to popular demand.

    While Lula mobilized institutional resources and expanded his public presence, Flávio Bolsonaro concentrated much of the first days of the second round on closed cabinet meetings and party alliances, losing some of the momentum on the streets. In response, the PL campaign plans to resume mass demonstrations with a large demonstration on Avenida Paulista this Sunday (18).

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Iran has begun to circumvent the U.S. naval blockade, according to Reuters Iran has recently managed to export some liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel despite the U.S. naval blockade, by concealing cargoes among an increasing volume of ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

    • Middle East Spectator
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    Japan delivers 425 tons of rice to Cuba - Prensa Latina

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    Havana, Oct 16 (Prensa Latina) A solidarity aid shipment of 425 tons of rice donated by Japan, destined for consumption by the population of eastern Cuba, was delivered today in this capital in the context of World Food Day.

    The shipment is part of a one million US dollar contribution from the government of the Asian nation through the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), to support the humanitarian response after Hurricane Melissa struck eastern Cuba in October 2025.

    The reception was presided over by the Japanese ambassador to Havana, Nakamura Kazuhito, and the WFP representative in Cuba, Etienne Labande. Representing Cuba were the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade, Oscar Pérez-Oliva, and the Minister of Domestic Trade, Betsy Díaz.

    In statements to Prensa Latina, Kazuhito highlighted Tokyo’s current policy towards Havana in the development of the food security program in the largest of the Antilles.

    “My country’s current position is to support the Cuban people through the various programs of the United Nations,” he stated.

    Japanese cooperation with Cuba began in 1961 and has focused on sectors such as agriculture, health and the environment.

    Following hurricanes such as Matthew, Irma, and Ian, Japan has provided emergency aid through the WFP, including one million dollars after Hurricane Melissa in 2025.

    In response to that last natural phenomenon, the WFP was the executor and central coordinator of humanitarian aid in Cuba, converting donor funds into emergency rations for some 190,000 people, and taking on logistics and supply amid fuel shortages.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Meta messages reveal restrictions that affected Lula’s campaign - Prensa Latina

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    Brasilia, Oct 16 (Prensa Latina) Internal messages from Meta reveal today restrictions that harmed the accounts of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and algorithmic recommendations that favored the visibility of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s profiles during the election campaign.

    An investigation by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, based on internal employee communications, exposed problems on Instagram and WhatsApp related to content visibility and the promotion of political profiles during the campaign for the second round of the presidential election on October 25.

    In one of the episodes, on October 9, Lula’s official account was unable for almost 24 hours to pay to expand the reach of posts already disseminated on Instagram.

    According to an estimate from the president’s team, approximately 1.3 million people stopped seeing ads due to this limitation. Internal communications also indicated that Meta employees considered the president’s account to be “limited” compared to that of his election rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, and warned of potential legal repercussions.

    The engineers in charge of solving the problem were questioned about the delay in responding to the urgency of the case.

    This investigation also described differences in search results and profile recommendations. At the beginning of October, Flávio’s profile appeared among Instagram’s suggestions, while Lula’s did not appear even when his exact name was entered.

    Likewise, on WhatsApp, when searching for the channel Exército do Lula (Lula’s Army), the results that appeared were Canal do Lula, the Workers’ Party’s channel, and Tropa do Flávio, the latter being favorable to the senator.

    Internal exchanges also alluded to other incidents that affected both campaigns, such as disruptions to advertising accounts and ads rejected for potential violations related to the use of artificial intelligence.

    Meta denied that its systems deliberately favor or harm any candidate and attributed the episodes to different causes, including global technical failures, specific errors, and the application of Brazilian electoral rules.

    The company maintained that the problems affected different advertisers and countries, and assured that its rules apply equally to all candidates.

    For its part, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign denied having suffered interruptions that affected its profiles or channels and assured that it complies with the rules of the platform and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

    These revelations come amid complaints from Lula’s team to the electoral court regarding alleged algorithmic selection.

    Given this scenario, the TSE asked Meta for explanations regarding the restrictions and distribution of content, as well as the preservation of relevant technical and advertising records.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Peace requires an end to the occupation, says Palestinian foreign minister - Prensa Latina

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    Ramallah, Oct 16 (Prensa Latina) Palestinian Foreign Minister Varsine Agapekian Shahin stated that achieving peace is impossible without an end to the Israeli occupation and respect for international law, the Wafa news agency reported today.

    During her speech at the seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, the foreign minister addressed the worsening humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip and the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, according to a statement from the Palestinian Foreign Ministry.

    Shahin also denounced the intensification of settler attacks against Palestinians and their property, as well as settlement plans, particularly the E1 project, which, he warned, threatens the territorial continuity of a future Palestinian state.

    The project, located east of Jerusalem, plans to connect the settlement of Maale Adumim with the city by occupying Palestinian land, which would separate East Jerusalem from other areas of the occupied West Bank.

    The minister stressed that a just and lasting peace requires respect for international law and an end to the occupation.

    He also urged that political and diplomatic efforts be translated into concrete measures to stop hostilities, alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian population, and create conditions for a sustainable solution.

    In that regard, he called for the application of the relevant United Nations and Security Council resolutions, as well as actions to curb the expansion of settlements and annexation plans.

    The Palestinian foreign minister reiterated the need to guarantee the establishment of an independent, sovereign and viable state, in accordance with international law and UN resolutions.

    He also urged CICA members to take practical steps to protect the Palestinian population, support their continued presence in their territories, counter displacement plans, and facilitate the urgent and unhindered entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

    Since the start of the Israeli offensive in Gaza in October 2023, military operations and settler attacks have also intensified in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, against a backdrop of settlement expansion and displacement of Palestinian communities.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Macron calls for calm ahead of expected protests in France - Prensa Latina

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    Paris, Oct 16 (Prensa Latina) French President Emmanuel Macron called for calm from Brussels in the face of demonstrations planned across France, for which the Interior Ministry anticipates more than 500 actions.

    The president insisted that demonstrating and expressing oneself constitutes a constitutional right, which must be respected, but he also demanded that respect be shown to people and property.

    His message comes amid a climate of growing social tension, with the streets having become the scene of discontent for several weeks, especially due to the blockades of high schools and the marches of students demanding improvements in education.

    “No insults, no destruction,” Macron summarized, demanding that the demonstrations be peaceful, although the left denounces that the figure of nearly eight thousand detainees in the aforementioned period speaks of a reinforced police activity in the protests.

    The president argued that the responsibility for preserving that right also falls on those who organize the demonstrations, and he distinguished between marches called by political parties and unions and the actions of groups that, according to him, seek to provoke disturbances.

    However, his speech emphasized the risks of violence rather than the social causes fueling the protests, according to experts participating in a debate on the BFMTV channel, dedicated to analyzing the reasons for the call for marches this Saturday.

    The president expressed his confidence in the prime minister and the interior minister, whom he credited with the extensive preparation of the security operation, and reiterated his support for law enforcement.

    Macron stated that officers face extremely difficult situations and denounced the attacks suffered in recent days, although he avoided referring to the injuries among students, something that parents’ associations in high schools are demanding.

    Furthermore, his defense of the police also relegated to the background the debate on the actions of the security forces and the allegations of excessive use of force during the demonstrations.

    At the time, the organizers of tomorrow’s demonstration referred to the preparation of more than 760 mobilizations from a wide range of social strata and various sectors, including students.

    Between 60,000 and 110,000 people are expected to attend the demonstration, not counting those expected at a march in this capital.