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US yields are currently sitting at or near multi-decade highs across much of the curve and have edged higher since hostilities with Iran resumed. With the war now in its seventh month, many analysts are wondering whether the bond market might end up being the major constraint on US military ambitions.

It wouldn’t be the first time Treasures put a damper on moves by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

A few months into his new term, Trump introduced his Liberation Day tariffs, thus opening a trade war against the whole world from the White House lawn. It would take exactly three trading days for the 10-year yield to chalk up a gain of around 50 basis points, putting it on pace for its biggest weekly rise in a quarter century. The administration beat a humiliating retreat by canceling or postponing most of the tariffs.

This could prove to be America’s Achilles’ heel in the Iran war Many analysts believe the specter of inflation, and downstream from that, Treasury market turbulence, has already limited the scope of what Washington can do in the Middle East. With yields rising aggressively now, the administration may well end up being even more constrained.