- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
There was an article earlier about people smoking crack if they thing Trump is up 10 points.
Well…he’s up 10 points. The Democrats need to do something fairly drastic soon if they want to win 24.
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The election is more than a year away, the article was about YOUNG people, and Democrats have been massively overperforming in special elections, demonstrating that there’s a polling issue right now.
See you in a year.
This is so scarily reminiscent of Dem complacency in 2016. Learn from history lest you be doomed to repeat it. Please.
I’m not suggesting or supporting complacency. We do not have this in the bag, and we had damn well better be prepared to fight every step of the way, because progress is an existential threat to these assholes.
I’m just suggesting that we don’t get cynical and apathetic, either. We can and will win if we don’t give up, but cynicism and apathy are just as much the enemy as complacency.
Your entire post is supporting complacency.
No it wasn’t, it was fighting misinformation (the article in question had been specifically about young voters, not the overall electorate), and against ridiculous dooming. We have no reason to lose hope right now or declare the election over more than year before it even happens.
I’m not telling you to lose hope. I’m asking people to avoid the same lazy complacency that handed Trump the presidency in 2016. Trump fans will vote. Dems have got to get the turnout to beat them.
Well, then you and I are in 100% agreement, and I’m sorry if my attempt to counter a doom-filled narrative came off as complacency. It wasn’t my intent in the slightest.
I feel like I’m the only one here old enough to have actually voted for Kerry and Clinton. This is how those elections started as well…
Everyone discounted the polls because they were absurd. No way Bush wins, he’s a…uh…special guy. 12 months later, Kerry concedes because he didn’t want to do to America what Trump did.
Just saying kids…history repeats.
You’re definitely not the only one. I remember both of Kerry and Clinton and was quite upset at the time about how blind the dems were to the obvious signs, but this is not enough to become alarmed. It is single poll conducted by phone making it incredibly skewed. And it’s a single poll.
It is single poll conducted by phone
Dunno man…the people that still pick up the phone are still by far the only people that vote consistently.
Another horrible take.
Then, I’m wrong, and this doesn’t turn out like the Hillary election.
Putting your head in the sand with your fingers in your ears won’t make this go away.
lol you act like there’s only two options - believing this singular poll indicates a trend, or pretending the poll doesn’t exist. However, no one is saying that it doesn’t exist. We just think it uses a singular and questionable collection technique and on its own is not enough data to draw a conclusion.
It’s clear from your initial post that you thought this was a second poll that validated the first, but once you’ve been confronted with the fact that this is another article talking about the same exact poll as the news last week, you haven’t backed down from your trend conclusion.
Let me put it clear as day in case you’ve missed the many other attempts:
ONE POLL IS NOT ENOUGH TO IMPLY A TREND.
Come back when there’s an actual trend, and you’ll find that many, myself included, will be a lot more receptive to that possibility because we are not burying our heads in the sand like you are assuming. It’s just that at this time, there simply is not enough data to draw that conclusion.
That’s a reasonable concern, but there are strong indicators that the electorate is very different now.
Again, Democrats have been massively overperforming. That means that in special elections since 2020 - and in the midterms in 2018 and 2022 - the polls underestimated Democratic support significantly. The same can’t be said of the special elections preceding Kerry’s loss. And it’s important to take note of who is turning out in unexpected numbers: Young people, who are notoriously hard to poll due to the fact that they don’t answer calls from unknown numbers.
Add to that the fact that Republicans have been killing themselves in record numbers by refusing to vaccinate during a global pandemic.
I’m by no means convinced Biden has a lock on the win. But especially more than a year away from the election, I’m not going to buy into the doom and gloom, either.
Also, we’ve got to factor in the Electoral College. Yes, it’s outdated and should be gotten rid of, but until it is gone, it’s how you win elections. Given that, national polls really don’t say who will win. You can win every national poll, but get crushed in the Electoral College.
If at this time next year the state level polling says that Trump (or whomever the Republican nominee is) will win, then I’ll be worried. Until then, I’m not going to panic because a couple of polls that may or may not be outliers say Biden is losing to Trump nationally.
this isnt a second poll clustering with the first one. its the same poll people were talking about on sunday, when it came out: https://nypost.com/2023/09/24/trump-scores-10-point-lead-over-biden-poll/
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Polls have been off the past few elections. Polls said Romney, Clinton, and Trump would win the last three elections. Soooooo Ya let’s not put too much weight in these.
This simply isn’t true.
There’s a trend there we should all pay attention to.
Not saying don’t be vigilant when it comes to voting but polling is still using 1940s rationalization when it comes to who they poll. Young people don’t pick up calls, so they are vastly under counted here.
Ask Bernie how the young vote turned out.
Bernie was stabbed in the back by the DNC. NOT VOTERS
Eh, he was kinda stabbed in the back by young voters. I know several people who worked in Washington state’s primaries. They wanted Bernie, but discovered that while his supporters could be counted on to show up for protests and rallies, they couldn’t be counted on to actually register as Democrats so they could vote in the primaries.
Fortunately, young people seem to have learned their lesson in the last few years.
Being fair to young people in Washington, by the time the primary got to them the fix was in and it was already clear Biden was going to win imo
Please describe the “fix” and how it would have been effective if young people had showed up to vote in the primaries for Bernie.
The problem here is that most states don’t allow people who aren’t registered as a member of a party to vote in that party’s primaries. And Bernie attracted a lot of attention from independent young people who didn’t want to affiliate with the Democratic party.
Like it or not, that independence bit them in the ass, because they could rally and chant and protest and send money to his campaign, but they couldn’t vote. Meanwhile, more pragmatically-minded people who knew they couldn’t vote in primaries without being registered as Democrats all lined up behind Biden, registered, and voted.
It didn’t thrill me. Biden was last on my list, and my preferred candidate was Elizabeth Warren. Bernie was #2 on my list. But when I talked to my pro-Bernie friends, I knew - and so did they - that Biden was going to win, because his supporters registered and turned out to vote.
Since then, young people have clearly smartened up and recognized the same problem. They’re showing up to vote in every election, and it’s causing Democrats to overperform and beat the polls. I absolutely love to see that.
Bernie wouldn’t have won the last election. I’d have been happy with him. I really kinda hoped for Warren. But if I recall correctly, Bernie lost more in black votes than he gained in youth votes. And in a general, being able to pin the word socialist (you and I know social democrat isn’t the same, but the electorate is short on nuance) on him would’ve lost a huge chunk of the middle.
Yes, the DNC fucked Bernie and I was pissed all the way to the election, but once the results were in it was clear to me that they did the right thing because Bernie would’ve lost and we would’ve had another Trump administration and that might’ve ended democracy right there. Young people were never going to come out in unimaginable droves in the general if they wouldn’t in the primaries. I want it to be different than it is, and I’m glad young voting is trending up because the future belongs to you folks, but it’s not enough yet to pretend you can ignore the base of voters that would be pushed across the aisle.
I mean feel free to argue with me. Post proof of how I’m wrong because I’d like to be, but I don’t think so.
Bernie has tremendous support in the deindustrialized parts of America, which is where Trump is strongest. That would have thrown everything up in the air and the outcome is uncertain. We’ll never know now, I guess.
The DNC did that, not voters, thats why they kneecapped him early 2016, he was projected to win by a landslide
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Polls have not been off, theyve been selectively polling specific demographics.
The only way they were able to show Clinton beating Bernie in 2016
Gotta look at the methodology of the poll, usually at the bottom
For this poll,
Methodology This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 15-20, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-42%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
With an even split between of those polled D and R, Biden is still losing
I feel this needs to be said every time there’s a national poll like this…
We don’t have national elections. We have a bunch of state by state elections, and as Al Gore and Hilary Clinton proved, it doesn’t matter how many people vote for you if you don’t win the right states.
We won’t really know the score until the Republican primaries and we can compare the votes in 2016 and 2020 vs. now.
I’ve got a chart ready to go, I just need numbers. 2016 Trump Primary vs. 2016 Trump General vs. 2020 General vs. 2024 Primary.
Every republican I talk to says they want Biden out, but they aren’t supporting Trump, cause “he turned out to be as crazy as the democrats”.
“I don’t like him, but I feel like I’d have to hold my nose and vote for him…”
We like Biden almost exactly as much as we liked Hilary. Meaning, the vast majority of us don’t because they are soulless life long party politicians.
At least Biden doesn’t need to overcome the fact that he was a life long Republican until his wife became president, then he was suddenly a democrat with no noticeable policy changes.
The American people are done with Republicans and Democrats (IE: The Party), and Trump has carried over a ton of Republicans into his currently non-party camp.
I think Biden is going to go up against a new dumbass, and Trump might get through to end America.
Bernie should have never kissed the Democrat ring.
The DNC is gonna lose and they will shift blame somewhere else. Clinton has already been priming the pumps with blaming Russia, again.
