Replaces Labour (Social-Fascist Unionist) although doesn’t have the seats to command an outright majority without their support.
Reform becomes 2nd largest party, which surged amongst Labour, Tory, and other unionist strongholds of Eastern/SW Wales.
Although Plaid are on paper the so-called independence party, their political will for an independence referendum has waned in the last few years. they would find support from the greens, who support national determination movements on principle, and perhaps a few opportunist labourites should a vote come to the Senedd.
This could become effectively a reverse of the coalition that previously governed Wales in the 2000s, at the time Leanne Wood representing the successionists from Rhondda Cynon-Taf, ironically embedded within the Social Unionist stronghold of South-Eastern Wales. either way, this is the worst election defeat for the labor party in Wales since its formation, having largely enjoyed a stranglehold on Welsh electoral politics for over a century.
TLDR I do not think there will be an independence vote unless they win an outright majority in their next term. By then, who knows? as Reform could very likely control the ultimate levers of state from Westminster.
I think the likely order is Irish Reunification -> Scottish Independence -> Welsh Independence
I think so. Although Plaid would be silly to squander their position and not call a referendum, because they might not get the chance in a few years and it probably plays into their hand that Labour may give consent, thinking it can shut the debate down for a while like they did to Scotland.
Similarly, a Reform parliament would probably block Irish and Scottish attempts at secession - so may as well strike the iron whilst its hot, and hope it sets things in motion for everyone else
