In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.
In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.
This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.
Polling has been unreliable for a decade. It is literally never statistically as accurate as it used to be for a million reasons. It gives the broadest possible view for limited regions, but has not been showing statistically relevant results. When was the last time ANYONE here answered a call from an unrecognized number and answered polling questions here?
I don’t know why they keep writing articles like this.