eduds6 [he/him]

i think it goes farther: it is to shadow the fact the operation failed, that the US has no comprador bourgeoisie and petty-bourgeoisie political platform to put in the place of the venezuelan government that can be accepted without a civil war or a military coup, and that they cannot overthrow the bolivarian republic without a full occupation, which they cannot enforce without a revolt at home or opening holes for enemies around the world by overcommitment

This fascist regime with trump in power employs the aura of invincibility and deterministic doomerism in enemies and a fatalistic manifest destiny that the US will retain hegemony and that trump and its fascist republican right is invincible. If this shatters, their satellite worldwide fascist forces in the third-world and the third-world population over 25 captured by cultural imperialism and fascism convictions collapse.

What i see is a massive disinformation campaign by capitalist global us-alligned or us-financed media to paint venezuela as submitting to the US and europe. we see no evidence of such and all claims i saw are all vapour.

I wont even say what i think on how strangely coincidental some posters take the very worst speculative doomerism at the worst moments.

When i say european waters, i mean provoking europe.

Russia could maneuver around european waters instead, but, well, they won’t. China and Russia do not want world war and its quite apparent they are trying to avert one (as the “allies” in the 1930s) and that this may not turn possible in five to ten years from now.

Brazil is another story entirely.

There is no way in hell Lula is losing in 2026 without something akin to the most sophisticated ever hostile takeover of the digital voting system state apparatus, which is, well, akin to taking over the systems of a central bank in the case of Brazil, therefore, from a intranet. They will have to topple him. And he has support of the millionaires and billionaires. And they themselves removed Bolsonaro because he was impossible to allow due to being a “instability” freak. The right candidate is the worst, most intelligent, psychopathic and most hated bolsonaro son, and something akin to a non-popular and dark room senator ghoul turning president in the US. They have no one else and the right is in crisis and fracture.

To remove Lula by coup or by air invasion of Brasilia, it will be continental war (not in the sense of what happened in venezuela where one side only defends) or civil war, it would break the eternal blood brother pact between white brazilian and white american capital that spans since the 19th century, and Brazil will retaliate american assets in colombia and ecquador with standoff weapons like the ASTROS and maybe even invade paraguay to force the US puppet gov out and force trump to have to be reactive and commit actual war effort.

Argentina, Ecquador and Bolivia cannot face Brazil even together and the Brazilian army is loyal to brazilian financial capital. They themselves stayed on the side of the government in 2022 coup attempt because the São Paulo ibovespa and big bank phones ringed, tvs like Globo started to call them terrorists immediately. What followed afterwards was the mass arrest of bolsonaristas and petty financers and their prosecution in two years.

So no, there won’t be a coup without much blood. If the regime falls, there will be civil war. Brazil is the unique flame in there because it has large big capital that wants stability above everything else, it has a industrial power (deindustrialization is a fascinating myth in the case of Brazil), and it has a nationalist faction in the “middle class”, it has strong interests of trade with China, and it has a strong army. The best route for the US is to allow the capitalists to negotiate with brazilian capitalists indirectly and make lula stay NATO-Alligned, which is hard if they keep bombing the fuck out of south america openly and kidnapping elected nation-state officials all in the open.

Sanctions are completely different in the scale and width. They involve far, far more than foreign owned capital voluntary extinction or sale. they can also be far reachingly devastating but also partially circimvented. just far more capital involved and also accumulation processes.

My comment does not touch the various kinds of economic sanctions since the 2000s and their impact on the venezuelan economy.

The problem of such kinds of assumptions is that they take neoclassical political economy as scientific and true (removing foreign investment weakens a bourgeois state) and not that it in fact reinforces the national bourgeois and the socialist communes inside venezuela to more resolve. One of the things i don’t swallow from this place is how many economic or political analysis are infested with neoclassical dogma. I don’t want to demonize anyone, but the user in question is quite used to it. take it as a critique.

It is not even comparable to take such a conclusion. this operation was stupid. there were likely many american soldiers dead and they likely stormed the room to takr maduro by sheer numbers. The failure of killing the chain was a sheer failure

There won’t be international recognition nor support for foreign boots to protect a micro-client state in Caracas. It is not simple as Syria and it is to underestimate the capabilities of infantry operation in jungle to think they will just weaken the venezuelan army with ease like this, too. Destroying the barracks was a good move but it is extremely unlikely the soldiers and regular army light and heavy equipment were buried under over the whole country.

The energy (does not include only oil) is for europe to ease up the strain and therefore to keep imperial capitalism going and slow down/prevent a world war in effect, at least as intention. If not, it is for propping up the LLM bubble foundations for some more years.

The fact we are supposing out of mere conjectures there would be some form of succession crisis or insurrection without anything to back it up aside from pessimism is not something i am much excited in discussing. But i will pretend to agree on the rest, because the way the american empire is taken for granted to have infinite and magical power (or the northern block alone) without any consideration for the constraints and for the strength of the other countries is astonishing.

Lets remember the chain of command decapitation strikes failed miserably, like the israeli one on pezeshkian failed. I doubt Reisi wasn’t killed though. The real power brokers are living and well and the bolivarian state is still moving.

The main problem about taking for granted what the us says about maduro is that we are forced to believe in people like rubio, trump and american far right internet personalities. i think its quite a bad variation of sources and that the sophisticated epistemological method people take in liberal american internet of “they would not appear weak” is not enough and that for some reason skepticism drops when its not pro-US favourable outcomes or premises. Also, what do they intend to do? they cannot hold caracas forever and the state will not fall because of its lack. if some say its a cope to think otherwise i think its cope of people who cannot seem to understand nation-states are subject to the interest of a class, which is now depositing power over the hands of the general. Compradors do not hold the consensus in Venezuela nor the army.

For the US to place machado or someone else, they need to first occupy the rest or Venezuela.

This is a kind of naive realism that does not fit reality of how far-right PR goes.

If they lied, they can just create a reason and sell it. everyone who matters (the main targets of the original PR stunt) will accept it as credible. They can even argue it was to “deceive the enemies”.

The far right does not care about credibility. Their opposition is incompetent to play the same tactics that depend on “post-truth” and their base accepts it as “tactical flex to gain advantage over the commie narratives”

because we do not know how many men and where they were at the time of the attack. no, they cannot hold caracas with air strikes and helicopters and they never held it in the first place

the decapitation strikes of the state officials, including the commander, failed, which indicates they cannot fight at such strategy and win. we do not even know if maduro is captured or not. they now have a enemy state that can retaliate. we do not know how many drones or weapons venezuela has in vaults somewhere

i dont fear to say this because i dont care if i proved wrong later: i wish the best luck for the special and delta forces to not get mopped up when the army forces them to fight to the death. this is not iraq nor is it afghanistan. it is a strong armed to the teeth bourgeois state. in fact, i hope the fascists burn.

they are in a huge city that will be sieged. good luck. air and helis wont save them. they may extract them if they are able to mantain comms. or maybe they will extract some bodies.

if trump is saying the truth, there aint going to be regime change with major bolivarians alive. they are in a quagmire if they dont eliminate one on one

trump is lying.

he is doing this to justify staying. if he shows no footage of maduro…

likely some bad shit happened due to the risk of the plan and us troops are in heavy urban street to street fighting. also venezuelan troops are going to envelop caracas and then invest in loose advance to prevent air strike carnage.