Close to zero chance. For starter’s Petro is anticommunist, or at best thinks of communism as “muh authoritarianism”. I do think he is a populist though and wishes to see popular movement as a way to further enhance his social democratic party and position.
They were elected through bourgeois elections, meaning several of the bourgeois checks and balances are still in place.
Until the countries have more popular struggle, the system will remain as is, probably.
Mostly the second, but also, I think it’s your duty to say if a radioactive facility has a leakage to protect the population. Even if they were lying, there are radiation sensors everywhere that would pick up a leak.
They will only join if:
A) The domestic politics allow it, which right now doesn’t seem like it.
Or.
B) Iran is about to get defeated, because after Iran, Hezbollah would be next.
If the US joins they won’t announce it, their bombs will.
Kinda hard to really say when the exact opposite can be said about Israeli AD
I think Iran already has a plan for whenever they would be attacked by the US. And this means it is very likely that they have factored in losses deemed acceptable from being struck first.
When you add in the fact that they are in high alert, it is likely that they will weather it better than they would have otherwise. What I mean is that if it was the US that attacked first on friday, while Iran was asleep, the damage would have been much more severe than what we have today.
Assuming this is true, there is a chance, albeit small and tainted with copium, that Iran is pulling back on their strikes because they don’t want to cause too much devastation for fear of excessive escalation, while also generating the same impact as the 100-missile barrages did.
I guess the only thing I can think about the changes in the dynamics is that having Iran move from sending 100 missile barrages to 20 or 30 so drastically seems to be a voluntary decision. It would not make sense that even if Israel was destroying silos throughout all of these days, that the missiles would have run out so fast. It could have been a more gradual process.
Additionally, the big hit that iran got was on Day 1 on Friday, if they considered their stocks to be very low, it would have not made sense for them to have sent a large portion of it, namely 200 missiles, on day 1, considering that would leave them unarmed immediately after.
How expensive are Iran’s missiles and compared to Israel’s defences?
Manual of the urban guerrilla by Marighela
Rant: It sucks that the only thing going “OK” in the world, geopolitics wise, is the war in Ukraine.
Everything else makes me depressed. What kind of world is worth living in where it’s just shittier and shittier?
At this point I kinda WANT China to become the new hegemon, maybe then they wouldn’t be such passive shits.
What chance is there that Iran is ok with the lowering of intensity because they are OK with taking these hits?
They will light the region on fire
I do think that from a strategic balance, the fact that the US is willing to join so soon does say that the balance is against Israel right now.
There is absolutely no reason for the US to put american lives on the line in Iran and the complete MENA region if they thought that israel was doing a sufficiently good job against Iran on their own.
Some are saying an Iranian hacking group was responsible for the misfire
Unfortunately, this could also mean the US goes nuclear out of spite.
Elijah Magnier - https://xcancel.com/ejmalrai/status/1934783722789691813#m
If Israel were to assassinate Sayyed Ali Khamenei, Iran would simply appoint another Supreme Leader. The institution would remain intact — just as it did after the death of Imam Khomeini. What such an act would truly trigger is a wave of popular mobilisation against Israel and a grave threat to the safety of every Israeli abroad.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategic calculus is not only dangerously shallow but emblematic of a broader collapse of international norms. His willingness to resort to targeted assassinations, car-bomb tactics reminiscent of terrorist operations, and open declarations of war against sovereign states — without consequence or international censure — signals the erosion of the very foundations of international law. Worse still, these actions are often met not with condemnation, but with tacit support or silence from the international community.
Also, on this vid (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iHpCUmoqaI) he mentions that the decisivity of the war depends on:
On the question of Is it possible that Israel wants to kill Khamenei, he thinks its 100% certain they want to kill him, yet this is not the decisive action that changes the course of the war because the Army has already put a solid chain of command that follows Khamenei’s orders even on his death.
So, was Iran much more cautious today, and that’s why we haven’t seen Israel bombarded? Or is it something else?
No, they are way too underdeveloped to get them now or on the near future.
I second this except that I would not say he is impopular