cross-posted from: https://europe.pub/post/1289229

Rule #1. Russia’s traditionalism makes it surprisingly predictable. If Russia surprises you, then you don’t know Russia.

Rule #2. If Russia promises to do something good, it will never do it. Consequence: a treaty with Russia is not worth the paper it is signed on.

Rule #3. If Russia promises not to do something bad, it will definitely do it. Consequence: Russia will do it the moment you decide it will not do it.

Rule #4. If Russia promises to do something bad, it will definitely do it. Consequence: Russia will do it at the most inopportune moment for itself.

Rule #5. If Russia accuses someone of meanness or a crime, then it has already committed it.

Rule #6. If Russia claims that someone is preparing meanness or a crime, then it is preparing them.

Rule #7. If Russia makes an official statement, it is a lie.

Rule #8. Russia does not understand the language of force, it understands only force. The consequence: ultimatums and negotiations with Russia are useless, because it perceives them as a sign of weakness.

Rule #9. If you are afraid of “provoking Russia to escalate”, then you are mistaken. Escalation has been planned by Russia for a long time and does not need an additional reason, pretext or provocation.

Rule #10. If you are still afraid of Russia, then you are doing it in vain. You simply do not know Russia.