hotspur [he/him]

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Joined 6 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2020

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  • I can’t remember where I read/saw the discussion (I think ion multiple commentator podcasts actually), but they were saying that this missle format, and the base striking strategy that Iran has been using has been oriented at achieving this exact scenario the whole time—basically keep kicking US off distributed bases forcing them to consolidate assets in fewer airfields farther away (distance means more planes in one place, and more on ground at a time because of limited maint and literal tarmac to takeoff and land) then once US is consolidated in these new locations, start hitting them with the fragmentation/multiple small warhead missles.

    The point the one commentator was making was that when they used them a bit way back in isreal, the point wasn’t to cause destruction, but to announce their functionality / capability—so people were waving it off saying look, those bomblets hardly do any damage to the city! But the point was to let US know that they had them and could deliver them on target. Used against crowded airfields they are supremely effective—1m holes in runways are very disruptive to operations, and many planes with shrapnel/holes/“light” damage are also hugely disruptive. They don’t need to hit a plane directly, they just need to damage them, and then the plane has to be fully inspected vetted to make sure that nothing crucial has been broken.

    The real cherry on top was the suspected plan for if US and Israel try and launch another major air offensive: they get half their aircraft up in the air for attack sorties, then Iran hits the consolidated airfields with these drag missles heavy and both takes remaining airframes off the table, but more importantly makes them impossible to land on, so the in-air sorties have to turn around and fly to med Europe to land, which pulls tankers off original paths and mission, and generally just breaks all operational tempo.

    But you have to have the US Israel backed into a few major spots, so Iran has been patiently herding them back to Jordan, and presumably plans to herd them all onto Israeli airfields eventually, at which point this strat can really pay dividends.











  • Ah wicked yeah sounded like he would have some instructions. Looking forward to trying it—I’ve tried a bunch of different local models with webui and lately Hermes agent, but have generally beefed up sorta disappointed—either the model is dumb and runs fast, or is somewhat smart but runs so slowly that it’s impossible to work with meaningfully. 24+ but capable sounds like a pretty sweet spot to actually do something with it.