I’m not buying his “the system has adapted” thesis either. It appeared that everything had normalized by summer 2020 as well, and then we had increasing troubles well into 2021 along with surging inflation. And if the Hormuz situation is a “logistical crisis” then so were the conditions of the Covid crisis. I wouldn’t confuse delayed consequences for adaptation. If we get to this fall or next year without significant change then I’ll believe it.

But I don’t think that will be the case.

I find I can’t even bring up climate change or limits to growth scenarios because it’s either a conspiracy theory or there will be some miracle fix to save us in the nick of time. That’s the current state of normie consciousness.

Well, BlackRock’s Larry Fink is already on record publicly saying that the funding for AI (e.g. data centers) will come from peoples’ savings, pensions, etc …

I have commented already how the American economy is very min-max right now - the people who have money in the markets have more cash than they ever had before, they have a lot to spend, and they are spending it on a luxurious lifestyle. They also appear to be blissfully unaware of how everyone else is living outside of that bubble, so to them, the “economy is great, never better”.

However, I have also noticed serious cutbacks outside of that top 10-20% or so.

I also think the economy never really recovered post-Covid. Commercial real estate is still in a deep depression because - although they tried to make “return to office” a thing - it was a mixed success and the bubble in CRE investment crashed with no survivors. Generally speaking, hiring has been good in only a few sectors - government, health care, education. The rest of the economy is pretty stagnant.

In the markets, most of the gain in recent times is from AI stocks, with the rest of the corporate world also stagnant. And right now, short term interest rates - the bond market - is not keeping up with inflation either.

We may not be in a recession but in my opinion the economy is majorly F’d up all the same.

Interesting, I looked it up and it seems to have come from a perfect storm of winter wheat crops being damaged by frost events along with persistent drought conditions especially in prairie states like NE and KS.

Anecdotally it seems that the grassland areas of interior USA are getting more frequent and persistent droughts. The early 2020s were bone dry every summer.

Yes, it seems obvious that the populace - apart from the Musks and Trumps of the world - see little possibility for a better life for their hypothetical children than they had, having experienced the ongoing crises of the 21st century, and therefore make the choice to not bring them into the world.

I think it’s baked into the cake at this point since there is little chance of a resolution for the Hormuz situation. The empire seriously underestimated Iran’s resolve, and agency for that matter.

Domestically there is going to be trouble too. From where I sit it appears that the MAGA coalition is fragmenting - farmers and working class supporters feel betrayed for example. And there are whispers that Trump is being blackmailed by foreign governments, took part in various disgusting acts, etc.

The US regime appears to be oblivious because they believe their own propaganda now despite wildly inaccurate numbers on both inflation and unemployment for years. They seem to actually believe the economy is doing well because they are richer than they’ve ever been. But the conditions on the street are closer to revolution than I have ever seen in my life. E.g. I see “86 47” graffiti around and so on, everyone’s pissed off and complaining about being broke, etc.

Needless to say, I’m very concerned about the next decade.

People are really going out of their way not to see the demand destruction phenomenon for what it is. My experience is that older people think the economy is doing great because they all had explosions in their asset values over recent years. The youth on the other hand complain about being broke and finding it difficult to keep up with basic living costs. There is a total breakdown in communication between these two groups.

Over the course of the past 3-4 years, I saw a steady escalation of military activity in my area. Choppers, planes, convoys, all of it. Often I would observe training exercises and the like. The whole thing gave me a sense of foreboding. In hindsight, it seems very obvious that foreign military adventures have been planned for some time.

I am not sure why Iran was picked as the first domino to fall, or why they chose to do this now, but it seems like we reached some kind of red line for the Empire and they felt it was do or die.

This was the stormiest summer I can remember since I was a kid. Very erratic weather patterns and high heat/humidity. This is in the Upper Midwest. By contrast the summers before - 2nd half of 20 & all 21/22/23 were summers of absolutely parched drought. We have had wild swings in this part of the world owing to increasing climate instability.

Huge proliferations of wildflowers along with the moist conditions.

There seem to be ongoing crackdowns on homelessness and various kinds of unlawful behavior such as speeding, drunk driving, etc - there is a very strong feeling of a police state again after a lax period during and after Covid.