• 66 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • GM is really destroying itself. They sold their European business some years ago and next year their joined venture with SAIC in China is going to end. So the US production is really all they have left and that market just hates EVs. So they probably fail the EV adoption and will last until some strong competitor enters the US market with good EVs. I am not just talking about the Chinese, but also European car companies have some decent offerings these days, with a much better home market.




  • If Iran loses the war, due to either a massive US ground invasion(will turn out bad for the US, but whatever) or them losing control of the country, would add Irans massive oil supply to the global market and lower oil prices a lot. If there is peace in the region, oil prices would also fall. If prices continue to be high, then EV adoption will lower oil consumption. Also shale takes like 3-6months to start a new project. So prices will fall. With $100 WTI, the oil price is also lower then the peak in 2022.

    Also Ukraine can hit Russian oil exports as well and has done so as well.





  • The Line is actually a massive success. Saudi Arabia has a massive problem, in that it is dependend on oil and gas, while radical Islam causes a lot of problems for switching to a more sustainable future. Especialls womens rights have improved a lot(still bad, but better). If you ban married women from talking with unmarried men, travel without guardian, drive a car and so forth, you are not using half your potential work force. These sort of strict laws also make the country less attractive to outside visitors. That however is required, when you have business travel and tourism.

    If you want to avoid a big backlash, you need to bring the Saudi public on your site and crack down on the most radical faction. A utopian project like the Line is perfect for that. It can inspire the public, while distracting from the crackdowns. It also works as great advertising for tourism. If you are able to deliver something similar, then you have a pretty good product. That is not as true for the Line itself, but for other parts of Neom. A big port in the area makes sense and tourism on the Red Sea is big business in Egypt.





  • The bottom is the US having no internal opposition to Trump. One of the biggest differences between the Nazis and the Republicans is, that the Nazis very quickly and violently destroyed the opposition. Somebody like Mamdami would have never been elected under Hitler. The great thing about the US is, that it has centuries of election history. For the most part with some horrible discrimination of women and black people, but still a large part of the population was voting. That is really hard for the Republicans to destroy and that means that there might be somewhat midterms. Obviously the Republicans will make those deeply unfair. However there is a chance of it going the right way.

    Just to be clear, this is not going to be easy and the midterms if anything are only a first step.


  • Oil price is set by supply and demand. Demand is still unfortunatly slowly growing. So if you cut supply, by for example stopping Russian oil exports, you then increase the oil price. The bad part in that is that it probably leads to Russia being able to somehow export oil around those sanctions(like via land to China for example) and actually make more money with it then with sanctions applied. This is made worse by Europe being oil importers, so a high oil price hurts Europe.

    Right now a number of things come together. Trump caused a recession in the US(lower oil demand), EVs are growing in sales(lower oil demand), Venezuela Maduro stuff(higher oil supply), OPEC increases oil production(higher oil supply), Trump makes it easier to frack in the US(higher oil supply) and so forth. The only thing increasing the oil price right now, is a potential invasion of Iran. However even that does not seem that likely. In other words cutting off Russian oil supply, is currently possible.

    Then Trump seized a Russian tanker and nothing happened and Greenland happened. Therefore Europe knows the risk of doing it are lower then thought and they have to take risks to make sure they do not depend on the US, if Russia starts a war against the EU directly.

    Oh and Russia looks weak right now. The economy has some serious problems, so this is likely to really hurt.