The war in Ukraine is one of relentless attrition. While territory usually only changes hands extremely slowly, munitions and equipment and destroyed and consumed at prodigious rates in a fires-dominated slugging match. In that kind of struggle, the endurance of a military may owe a lot to the pipeline of replacement equipment that supports it. For Ukraine, that largely means looking into the details of foreign equipment provision and some Ukrainian domestic production. But for Russia, without as many allies to call on, one of the key factors is probably defence industrial output, a topic which is widely contested in news and propaganda. According to some sources, Russia produces enough equipment to overpower all of NATO alone, acording to those on the other extreme, it produces little of value or quality. In this episode, I try to dive into Russian data as well as battlefield loss observations to try and get an understanding of where the truth lies. Trying to understand how much equipment Russia may be producing, and what that means for its ability to sustain a long, hard-fought war. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats and Corrections: All normal caveats and disclaimers apply (yes including the non-reliance and non-financial-advice provisions, please don't trade defence stocks based on YT videos) At one point a slide refers to it being 'reported' that the Russian defence budget has already spent 1T Rubles on salaries in the first half of 2023 - It is important to clarify that the inclusion of statements as 'reported' does not represent endorsement of their accuracy. I have no solid information on paid out salaries and allowances in Russia in Q1&2 2023 Reading/sources: Julian Cooper (published in SIPRI) - RUSSIA’S MILITARY EXPENDITURE DURING ITS WAR AGAINST UKRAINE https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/202306/sipriinsight_2306_07_russias_military_expenditure_during_its_war_against_ukraine_230627.pdf Julian Cooper (published in SIPRI) -IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERAL BUDGET DURING JANUARY–JULY 2022 AND SPENDING ON THE MILITARY https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/bp_2210_russianmilex.pdf Shoigu saying the SDO in 2023 will be 1.5x 2022 https://rg.ru/2022/11/30/shojgu-v-2023-godu-finansirovanie-gosoboronzakaza-uvelichitsia-v-15-raza.html TASS on Septmber 2022 budget submissions https://tass.com/defense/1514879 Rostec - supply of Tu-160 engines https://rostec.ru/news/odk-postavit-minoborony-rf-vosem-dvigateley-dlya-tu-160m/ Medvedev saying things: https://tass.com/defense/1526773 https://tass.com/defense/1666259 Putin 2.7x figure https://tass.com/politics/1631641 Borisov on the Russian defence sector: https://vpk.name/news/613140_borisov_deficit_kadrov_na_predpriyatiyah_opk_v_rf_budet_sostavlyat_okolo_400_tys_chelovek.html Chemezov interviews: https://rostec.ru/news/mikhail-mishustin-provel-rabochuyu-vstrechu-s-glavoy-rostekha-sergeem-chemezovym-/ https://vpk.name/en/755227_sergey-chemezov-presented-the-results-of-work-for-2022-to-the-president-of-russia-vladimir-putin.html http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71993 Institut Action Résilience Research piece https://institutactionresilience.fr/publications.php The 1,500 T-90M and T-14 thing https://en.topcor.ru/33467-military-watch-v-2023-godu-v-rossii-izgotovjat-okolo-1500-tankov-t-90m-proryv.html Jamestown foundation pieces (by Pavel Luzin) https://jamestown.org/program/russias-defense-industry-growing-increasingly-turbulent/ https://jamestown.org/program/russian-arms-production-q2-2023/ Rosstat industrial data: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/212897 https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/63_26-04-2023.html Reuters reporting on military production https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-military-production-state-splurge-ease-sanctions-pain-2023-04-04/ Pavel Luzin (for FPRI) - Russia's military industry forecast 2023-2025 https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/04/russias-military-industry-forecast-2023-2025/#_edn2 Destruction of the Minsk https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russian-landing-craft-minsk-almost-certainly-destroyed/#:~:text=The%20Russian%20landing%20vessel%20Minsk,intelligence%20report%20on%20Sept.%2015. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Russian Defence Production 2023 00:01:34 — What Am I Talking About 00:02:47 — Assessing Defence And Industrial Production 00:10:11 — Budgets 00:17:38 — Corporates And Workforces 00:23:27 — Output Measures 00:27:54 — What's Going On In The Russian Data? 00:31:45 — Russian Equipment Patterns 00:50:40 — The Drone Effort 00:58:26 — What About Sanctions 00:59:55 — Endurance And A Changing Russian Army 01:03:08 — Scenarios And Failure Points 01:08:09 — Conclusions 01:09:58 — Channel Update
  • Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works
    10·
    1 year ago

    Really interested to check this video out when I have a chance. My initial thoughts are that this ship sailed a while ago, got a hole punched in it by a naval drone, then was towed to Sevastopol for repair before being destroyed by a storm shadow.

    • awwwyissss@lemm.ee
      4·
      1 year ago

      Yeah. Even if they can keep up, it will only be for a few years, and it will wreck their economy for multiple reasons.

      • c0c0c0@lemmy.worldEnglish
        51·
        1 year ago

        But Ukraine has its own challenges. Not only is its industrial sector being regularly bombed, but it has to depend upon the West not losing interest. It’s a race to see which happens first: Russian collapse or Western disengagement.

    • mawkishdave@lemmy.worldEnglish
      3·
      1 year ago

      Also Russian is taking a lot of those people that would build the stuff and sending them to the front lines. The migrant working are finding out the same will happen to them. So even if Russian could get the Western parts they don’t have the skilled labor to make or repair the stuff.